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Mix-Ansicht- Building permits höher - Häuserangebot höher - CRASH_GURU, 19.10.2004, 14:58
- Re: Neue Goldman Sachs-Studie: Trouble is brewing in the housing market - Per_Jakobsson, 19.10.2004, 17:22
Re: Neue Goldman Sachs-Studie: Trouble is brewing in the housing market
-->Auszug aus Studie vom 15.10:
TROUBLE IS BREWING IN THE HOUSING MARKET
The risk of a housing market downturn is rising. First, over the past year, prices finally seem to have risen beyond the level justified by interest rates and household incomes. Currently, we estimate that the market is overvalued by just under 10%.....
Second, there are some signs of excess supply. Although vacancy rates send mixed signals, inventories of unsold homes are rising quickly. Moreover, the current pace of new construction seems to have exceed the long term trend in household formation. This siggests that housing starts may need to decline if a glut of new homes is to be avoided.
Third, homebuyers seem to have developed a speculative mindset. Existing homes are turning over at an unusually rapid pace and a recent survey of US homebuyers found wildly inflated expectations for future home price gains....
THE KEY DOWNSIDE RISK TO THE ECONOMY
We conclude that the american US housing market looks overstretched on a number of indicators. If there is a bubble it seems to have emerged relatively recently and is certainly relatively smaller than in other English speaking countries as Australia and the UK. But even a smaller bubble would be worrisome given the extent to which the US economy has relied on a strong housing market to support GDP growth in recent years. Small open economies can rely on external demand to pull them through a housing and domestic demand bust. But that is much harder for the United States.
If housing does turn down, the implications for growth and interest rates could be severe. If housing starts declined 10% to 20% in each of the next two years, the housing sector would shave 1/4 to 1/2 percentage point from real GDP growth, after adding an average of 1/2 percentage point in the last two years. More importantly, a decline in housing prices could put substantial upward pressure on the personal savings rate. This would increase the likelihood that the inevitable increase in the savings rate in the next five to ten years might occur in an abrupt rather than gradual fashion. Therefore, we view the housing market as the key downside risk to our baseline forecast that US growth will fall short of consensus expectations but will escape a full blown recession in near term.
Grüße
Per
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