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Mix-Ansicht- Financial Times: Erscheinen die Asiaten zur dieswöchigen Treasury-Auktion?!?! - kingsolomon, 10.11.2004, 23:49
- Re: Financial Times: Erscheinen die Asiaten zur dieswöchigen Treasury-Auktion?!?! - CRASH_GURU, 11.11.2004, 07:28
- Könnte auch auf den Aktienmarkt durchschlagen - EM-financial, 11.11.2004, 10:13
- Re: Please climb the wall of worry ;-)) (o.Text) - Ecki1, 11.11.2004, 11:34
Financial Times: Erscheinen die Asiaten zur dieswöchigen Treasury-Auktion?!?!
-->Beware no-shows. This week the US government is due to refinance about $51bn of Treasuries as part of its quarterly funding cycle. Earlier this year, most of these bonds were gobbled up by Asian central banks, looking to park their rising dollar reserves. However, the four-week moving average of foreign central bank purchases turned negative last month, since Asian currency intervention has tailed off. While small-scale foreign purchases have subsequently resumed, what might happen if official foreign buyers do ever stay away from the auctions en masse?
A recent paper by the New York Federal Reserve is none too reassuring. It notes that Asian central banks currently have considerable incentive to diversify their reserves away from the dollar. Thus, even if they were to intervene in currency markets again this winter they might not channel all of this into Treasuries. Moreover, if foreign governments did stop buying US assets, purchases by private domestic investors would apparently need to be six times 2003 levels to take up the slack. Common sense implies this would cause a bond market collapse.
There is no indication yet that this grim situation is unfolding. In fact, US officials comfort themselves that bond prices actually rose last month, when foreigners temporarily pulled out. But that may have been a stroke of luck, coinciding with changing inflation views. Do not count on its happening again if the Asians fail to turn up in force at this month's auctions.
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