Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Europäer kaufen US Diesel - Amis sauer - Handelskrieg in spe? - off-shore-trader, 18.11.2004, 17:22
Europäer kaufen US Diesel - Amis sauer - Handelskrieg in spe?
-->Thursday, November 18, 2004
A diesel dilemma! Despite a big jump in US refining activity, distillate inventories surprisingly fell in both the Department of Energy and the API weekly supply reports. Incredibly strong demand was shown especially for this time of year and it seems to suggest that down in the trenches, the economy is on fire! Rail rates, trucking rates, shipping rates are soaring as demand for moving goods from one place to another suggests most people can't get enough. Is that all there is to the drop in distillates or is there something more sinister going on?
According to Bloomberg News,"Oil refiners such as Citgo Petroleum Corp and Premcor are shipping record amounts of diesel to Europe for use in automobiles, boosting cost in the US for truck fuel and home heating oil". The story quotes Premcor Chairman Thomas O'Malley as saying,"The demand for diesel is at an extraordinary level. There is a lot more trucks, planes and trains moving and we are seeing a substantial out flow of diesel to Europe. Which of course has now driven US distillates inventory to a record low for this time of year."
All of this, of course, begs an answer to the question, with US refining capacity tight, why are we sending all our diesel to Europe? Many think we should be hoarding our oil to keep prices down. It's obvious Europe is buying their oil from us because the record high price on the Euro versus the US dollar make US products and materials more attractive and cheap as compared to other countries. If we banned exports of diesel to Europe, would it end up making our prices cheaper? Well at first it would but in the long run it would make the price higher than ever due to the absolute fact that the US is totally 100% dependent on the free flow of international oil for our very existence!
The US imported more oil according to the monthly report from the API. In fact the API reported that imports made up two-thirds of crude oil and petroleum products consumed in the US last month. And that ties the record for all previous months of imports. Imports were high partly because of a mad scramble to cover what was lost due to hurricane Ivan in the Gulf. Had the hurricanes not happened, those imports would probably have gone to Europe. Oil will flow first to where there is the need and the price is the highest.
So any attempt by the US to try to keep distillates here could lead to an ugly trade war. Retaliation would hurt all involved and no one would win.
Trying to hold the crude under water! The API supply report for crude oil was the only reason the entire energy complex didn't immediately erupt. They reported that the US managed to build 3.0 million barrels of crude last week. Yet the Department of Energy told a different story and said crude rose a paltry 800,000 barrels. But the best case scenario for the bears was to give the allusion that another big build in crude is just days away and this would leave refiners awash in it. The fact is we are just 2.0 million barrels above last year levels.
It's true that prices are 50% higher than last year. And it's also true that there are strong signs that the US economy is a lot stronger than last year. Also true that the US dollar is a lot weaker. Seen gold lately? In the area of $450.00! Also true that today we are near 60 degrees in Chicago. Also true that a winter wonderland could hit at any time. Watch out when temperatures start to plunge.
There'll be no Energy Report tomorrow because I'm speaking at the money show in Las Vegas. I'll be back on Monday unless I hit it big! It's just amazing to me how many of you want me to break an egg on James Carville's head!
See me this morning on CNN-fn at apprx 8am central and have a GREAT day!
We're long jan crude from apprx 4550 - raises top to 4540.
We're long dec heating oil from apprx 13300 - raise stop to 13800!!!
We're long dec unleaded from apprx 12100 - raise stop to 12200!!!
We're long jan natural gas from apprx 770 - raise stop to 780!!!
<ul> ~ http://www.alaronenergies.com/</ul>
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
