Re: das neuste vom EW Pabst persönlich: Ã-l 10 und AU 200 USD:

verfasst von CRASH_GURU, 18.11.2004, 21:24

-->Das (aller)letzte von Prechter:
Over a year ago, in the October 2003 issue, EWT
argued that the recovery in gold prices since 1999 was a
“cousin” to its recovery from 1982 to 1987. Figure 6
updates the bear market from 1980 and highlights these
two X-wave recoveries with brackets. Both of these
waves comprise three subwaves, labeled A-B-C,
which is a countertrend pattern. The similarity
between these two periods has become stronger
than ever:
(1) The first recovery pattern lasted 5
years, 6 months, from June 1982 to December
1987. The second pattern has lasted 5 years,
3 months so far and will span an equivalent
time in February 2005.
(2) Using daily closing futures prices, the
first recovery pattern spanned a price distance
from $282 to $510, a total of $228. Its net rise
was from $298 to 497, a total of $199. The
second pattern began at $253 and will reach
these two distances at $452 and $481. On a
percentage basis, these prices are $422
(already passed) and $457.5. Gold’s recent
closing high is $440. In the context of Elliott
waves, the net rise of the first wave X is the
proper measuring distance, so the $450s are
a very good target for the daily closing high,
with an outside shot at $481. (Top tick intraday
will likely be a few dollars higher.)
In other words, these two patterns will share
not only their ABC pattern but also quantitative
characteristics if gold tops very soon and not Figure 6
Updated from the October 2003 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist
From the February 2001 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist
Figure 5
The Elliott Wave Theorist -- November 17, 2004
5
much above current levels. This is a highly likely prospect
because of the current sentiment readings for gold. It’s
hard to believe that with gold still below its 1987 peak, not
to mention its 1980 all-time high, the two-week average
of traders’ sentiment as measured by MBH Commodities
is over 90 percent bulls, the highest in the history of the
figures, which go back 17 years to mid-1987! The recent
one-day extreme was 95 percent. Bullishness creates tops;
extreme bullishness creates major tops.
That’s not all. The affinity to 1987 has become
remarkable. In 1987, silver peaked in April. Silver peaked
in April of this year as well. In 1987, gold in dollar terms
drifted higher in the final three quarters of the year,
unaccompanied by silver and the gold price in other
currencies. In other words, it was rising only on some
residual buying in response to a weak dollar. That is exactly
the position of the gold market today. It’s at a new high
near the end of the year, all by itself. As you can see in
Figure 7, these myriad non-confirmations (which were
also present at the 1996 top) are a sign of upside
exhaustion. The extreme bearish sentiment on the dollar
indicates an approaching bottom for a major recovery, so
gold and the dollar should reverse their current trends
simultaneously.
The outlook for gold is much the same as that for oil.
EWT’s long-standing target of “below $200/oz.” remains
intact.

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gesamter Thread:

• Gold 440 ======= Elliott wavers who were bearish on gold can now... - Silberblick, 18.11.2004, 07:02
  • 25.000.-US$ - Toby0909, 18.11.2004, 08:15
    • Re: 25.000.-US$ - etoile, 18.11.2004, 22:52
  • Re: Gold 440 ======= Elliott wavers who were bearish on gold can now... - Euklid, 18.11.2004, 08:54
    • Nicht nachvollziehbar... - fridolin, 18.11.2004, 09:31
      • Re: Nicht nachvollziehbar... - Euklid, 18.11.2004, 10:11
        • Re: Nicht nachvollziehbar... - fridolin, 18.11.2004, 10:27
          • Re: Klartext, danke - - Elli -, 18.11.2004, 11:01
          • Das ist ´was Wahres dran... (o.Text) - spieler, 18.11.2004, 11:57
    • Re: Gold 440 / Klarstellung - ---Elli---, 18.11.2004, 14:34
      • @Elli - Euklid, 18.11.2004, 16:55
        • Re: @Euklid - - Elli -, 18.11.2004, 17:03
  • na gut - wer hat hier den USD als Basiswährung? - eroland, 18.11.2004, 12:23
  • Re: das neuste vom EW Pabst persönlich: Ã-l 10 und AU 200 USD: - CRASH_GURU, 18.11.2004, 21:24