Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden/ dazu....

verfasst von - Elli -, 19.11.2004, 14:22

-->... habe ich folgendes gefunden (was plausibel klingt, ich aber nicht abschließend beurteilen kann. Ich wäre für eine Wertung sehr dankbar.
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<font color=#0000FF>In our opinion the above-mentioned inverse correlation between bonds and the dollar has its origins in the currency management programs of Asian central banks. In particular, it arose due to the Bank of Japan's large-scale purchases of US bonds in response to every significant drop in the dollar over the past few years. The Asian banks are still a big factor in the US bond market, but we suspect that it became such a well understood 'theme' that the relationship could persist for a while even in the absence of large-scale central bank intervention.

"The dollar's down so let's buy bonds" theme isn't likely to remain in place for much longer because at some point the connection will be made between a weakening currency and an increasing risk of an inflation problem, but right now an upward reversal in the US$ represents the biggest threat to the US bond market.

The relationship between interest rates and government deficits

...we are not bearish on US T-Bonds because we are anticipating further increases in the SUPPLY of US Treasury debt. Rather, we are bearish on bonds because we are anticipating a large drop in the DEMAND for bonds as a result of rising inflation expectations.

A point that we've made in the past, although certainly not in the recent past, is that the expectation of a large increase in the US budget deficit is NOT a reason to be bearish on US Treasury Bonds.

It isn't difficult to find examples that support the above statement. For instance, US government bonds rallied in parallel with a massive expansion in the US budget deficit during the first six years of the 1980s, Japanese government bonds have been very strong in parallel with massive increases in Japan's budget deficit over the past 10 years, and the rally in US government bonds during 2001-2003 occurred alongside a huge increase in the US budget deficit.

The opposite also holds true in that a reduction in the budget deficit does not necessarily lead to higher prices for government bonds (lower interest rates). In fact, in developed countries such as the US there is no consistent relationship between the government's budget deficit and the price of long-term government debt.

Further to the above, we are not bearish on US T-Bonds because we are anticipating further increases in the SUPPLY of US Treasury debt. Rather, we are bearish on bonds because we are anticipating a large drop in the DEMAND for bonds as a result of rising inflation expectations.

As an aside, we were reminded of the above-discussed lack of correlation between budget deficits and bond prices by the following two paragraphs from John Hussman's latest weekly commentary. Dr Hussman is one of the smartest analysts in the business and his Weekly Market Comments are always worth reading:

"A personal favorite is the idea that reducing deficits by raising taxes will lead to lower interest rates. Think through this. If you increase taxes, yes, you can reduce the supply of government bonds, which you might think would lead to higher bond prices. The problem is that you've also reduced the income of people with high propensities to save, which would have otherwise been used to buy bonds, so the demand curve for bonds also shifts back. The clear result is a reduction in the quantity of government bonds, but the effect on bond prices (and interest rates) is not clear at all. As an empirical fact, you'll find no obvious relationship at all between interest rates and government deficits. It doesn't work that simply. You have to think through the whole equilibrium, including both the supply and demand for funds, as well as whether those funds are used productively or unproductively. [Emphasis added]

Similarly, while you can certainly get an economic pop with a lump sum tax cut (though they tend to die off over several quarters, as this one threatens to do), you certainly don't stimulate gross domestic investment or economic productivity by doing so. The reason is that if you haven't cut government spending, the lump sum tax cut must be financed through an increase in Treasury bond issuance. In equilibrium, the extra money in the hands of the public must be used to buy the extra bonds issued by the Treasury. No doubt in the current instance, China and Japan have delayed our full realization of this harsh fact. But with the current account deficit now bursting at the seams, it's likely that weak growth in gross domestic investment will weigh on U.S. growth prospects for years to come."

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gesamter Thread:

• Ist Dottore sauer wegen Emerald gestern? - Theo Stuss, 17.11.2004, 15:57
  • glaube ich kaum. Er braucht immer wieder Zeit zum Arbeiten.... - BillyGoatGruff, 17.11.2004, 16:06
  • Re: Was heißt hier"wieder mal"? - dottore, 17.11.2004, 17:14
    • Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden,... - Theo Stuss, 17.11.2004, 17:40
      • Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden,... - dottore, 17.11.2004, 18:39
        • Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden,... - Sorrento, 17.11.2004, 19:10
          • Re: Ja so ist´s, auch wenn manches absurd erscheint - André, 17.11.2004, 19:38
          • Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden,... - dottore, 18.11.2004, 10:48
            • Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden,... - Euklid, 18.11.2004, 11:58
              • Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden,... - Bärentöter, 18.11.2004, 15:47
                • Ergänzung dazu - Bärentöter, 18.11.2004, 15:53
                  • Re: Ergänzung dazu - Euklid, 18.11.2004, 16:19
                    • Re:"Exports increased, imports decreased" - dottore, 19.11.2004, 15:21
            • Re: Wie sollen bei fallendem Dollar die Dollartitel gehalten werden/ dazu.... - - Elli -, 19.11.2004, 14:22
              • Re: Soweit okay, aber nicht wirklich neu - oder? - dottore, 19.11.2004, 15:41
        • Re:niedrige Zinsen erkaufte man damals in Japan durch massive Staatsverschuldung - Theo Stuss, 17.11.2004, 20:12
      • Re: Das Verhalten der ZB wurde ausgeklammert - André, 17.11.2004, 18:41
        • Re: Das Verhalten der ZB wurde ausgeklammert - philliecht, 17.11.2004, 20:29