Nochmal zu Silber

verfasst von yatri, 08.12.2004, 22:05

-->Bitte lest mal den ganzen Artikel (siehe Link) - ich zitiere hier mal den Einstieg:

"The current COTs indicate no basic change in the extreme readings in gold and silver. The tech funds are very long and the dealers are very short. The outcome is still very much unresolved. It is true that the dealers are sitting on significant losses and the tech funds have very large open profits in gold and silver, but it is only when these open positions are closed out that will we know, who won and who lost.

For many weeks we have been at these extreme COT readings, but the passage of time, alone, does not bring about a resolution. Only actual close-outs of positions brings resolution. In the beginning of this year, the silver COTs remained at a negative extreme for months, before the vicious sell-off in April resolved the COTs to the downside. This has always been the outcome. The tech funds didn’t actually lose in that episode, if you remember; but they did give back all the hundreds of millions of dollars of open silver profits. How it turns out this time we will be able to judge only with the benefit of hindsight.

The moving averages are trending higher, so the tech funds will get sell signals at higher price levels than a month ago, if we go down. This would seem to suggest that the funds should get out with some profits. I can’t pinpoint it, but I get the feeling that if the dealers can engineer a sell-off, it will be a real"thumper" to the downside, designed to deprive the funds of any profits. That is not a certainty, of course, and there will be plenty of time to celebrate if, instead the dealers get overrun. As much as common sense favors silver as a better value than gold, in a severe sell-off, silver will likely accentuate the move to the downside. Silver, after all, generally moves more than gold, either up or down.

So far, while the situation is somewhat"tight", it does not appear that the December COMEX delivery will be a problem in gold or silver. Of course, the delivery runs until the end of the month, so I may be premature. The copper delivery looks very tight, with open contracts in the spot delivery month greater than warehouse stocks after one full week of delivery. That’s something I don’t recall witnessing before, but that’s a different subject."

Gruß
yatri

P.S.: Heute morgen heiße DAX-Turbos gekauft - gut gegen Silberfrust
<ul> ~ http://www.investmentrarities.com/12-07-04.html</ul>

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gesamter Thread:

• Nochmal zu Silber - yatri, 08.12.2004, 22:05
  • Re: Nochmal zu Silber und GOLD - CRASH_GURU, 09.12.2004, 08:39
    • gut zu wissen - danke! (o.Text) - yatri, 09.12.2004, 10:20