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Mix-Ansicht- Linktip - US Forum - black elk, 11.12.2000, 21:40
- Danke, toller Tip! owT - Amanito, 11.12.2000, 22:26
Linktip - US Forum
Hi,
folgenden Text fand ich in dem 'the crystall ball' Forum. Es beschäftigt sich vor allem mit Fibonacci, Cycles und Astroeinflüssen.
Elliott Wave mentioned a cycle of turn dates in a letter back in early Oct. I'm trying to find it but haven't been able to as yet. The turns are every 63 trading days and alternate from a high to a low. I'm sure the last turn was either the 13th or 18th of Oct. and a low, putting the next turn on appx Jan.15th 2001, a high. I believe the dates are 7-19-1999 a high, 10-18-1999 a low, 1-14- 2000 a high, 4-14-2000 a low, 7-17-2000 a high, 10-13-2000 a low, then a high due appx. Jan. 15th 2001. I don't do any work with respect to astrological or harmonic affects on the market, but I'm familiar with a few of the events that normally can cause turns; such as a Venus Uranus trine ( I believe that's what you call it ) that is happening the weekend before Christmas. I know they are associated usually with highs, but there was one on July 28th 2000, and it was a low. The Bradley indicator, which has been fairly good this year and hasn't been inverting much, has a high for Dec.13th, and goes down into early Feb. from there. Some people do the Bradley a little different, and I know a high shows up on about Jan.13th from a low around 1-2-2001 after a 12-13-2000 high according to Jerry Favors. A friend of mine; Kris Kaufman, owner of Parallax Financial Research, a firm that specializes in market turn dates and other mkt. info for institutional clients, does the Bradley with a little different touch and says that from around Dec.13th it goes down into early Feb. I know the Bradley isn't perfect, but it can be at times. I am familiar with George Lindsay's work. Only a very few people; I think, are aware of his work. He could accurately predict bull market tops a couple years in advance within a couple days. He had many other ways of counting time for turns also. One was a long term count from a low to a high. If you would like to see something interesting, notice EVERY impt. market top in since 1976 including Dec. 1976 has come anywhere from 15yrs 9 mos to 15yrs 11 months from a major low. His work says that they occur any where from 15 yrs to 15 yrs 11 mos from a major low. His work goes back to the beginning of our market. Only a very few like 1 or 2 came a month or so early and the same amount a couple mos late with the longest being 12 yrs 3 mos. You may think that's a very broad time frame, but if you go back and look at them all it will freak you out. The last low of importance here is July of 1984, which even though it's used pimarily on the Dow, 15 yrs 8 or 9 mos gives you March-April of this year. That is the high in the S&P 500 and the secondary top in the dow. He says that the majority occur either 15yrs to 15yrs 3mos, or 15yrs 9mos to 15trs 11 mos. The next low I'm counting from is Sept 1985. A low is relative to what happens afterwards, and that is undoubtly a low. Two of the tops since 1976 aside from being 15yrs 9mos to 15yrs 11 mos from a major low were also 15yrs, and 15yrs and 1 mo from a major low. Those were 8-25-87 and 8-7-97 in the Dow. There are many ways to come up with market turns and I wish I knew them all; however I don't. AND I NEVER WILL!!! Another way that few are familiar with, but should be is counting fibonacci months from turns. Take them back as far as you'd like. They almost always cluster so as to say +or- a month. If you go back as far as 987 months you'll find out that the broad period of Feb 2000, which I think was the 987th month hit to June 2000, with the majority of hits in March, April,and May was a monster turn window. That is where the NASDAQ and S&P 500 crested. The turns I'm using are MAJOR TURNS. For what it's worth, another turn can't happen till at least May of 2001. I KNOW THAT THE LARGEST TURN HAPPENING IS IN THE BOND MARKET. It is not only a monthly turn, which all hits have worked since the low Sept. 1981, but it's also a yearly turn where all hits have also worked since 1946; the lowest yield on treasuries in the 1900's; each +or- one unit of time. Since 1946 all yearly hits have changed the direction of rates into the next yearly turn. THEY COINCIDE IN FEB. 2001. I believe the first week is where the hit comes. That and the fact that counting fibonacci weeks from the Dow high on Jan. 14th 2000 where the Sept.6th high was on the 34th week and the 55th week is the last week of Jan. first week of Feb. 2001, coupled with a number of other things including the eclipse series, which was present in 1929 and 1987 at turning points (the secondary top in 1987 and panic low in 1929) also the potential that we are in or entering wave 3 down in Elliott Wave are all just too too too too (sounds like a train) much not to think something; possibly a crash, (WHEN ELSE IF NOT HERE???) is going to happen. A HUGE TURN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy Holidays, Good Luck,Good Health, and Good Tidings, Larry
<ul> ~ The Crystall Ball - Market predictions</ul>
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