Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Also einer der es wirklich drauf hat - Uluwatu, 15.12.2000, 17:19
- Re: Also einer der es wirklich drauf hat - JüKü, 15.12.2000, 19:50
Also einer der es wirklich drauf hat
ist Ed Downs...Hut ab
Ich denke es gibt keinen besseren technischen Analysten. Lese seine Prognosen seit 2 Jahren und er liegt sehr sehr selten daneben
www.signalwatch.com
seine Prognose für heute
Well, I'd say the market voted today, wouldn't you? No recount was required - it started down and kept going down, all the way to the close, across the board. We dropped right through our stop/go short levels on the NASDAQ and OEX, and moved to within striking distance of our lower Dow critical support level of 10,600.
For short term traders, today was great. The immediate drop at the Open heralded a down day, after yesterday's election conclusion failed to garner confidence. There was a great deal to be made at the outset. Then, we formed a consolidation from 10,650 to 10,775.
Take a look at the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. You can see this formation, just above 10,600. What does an upward-sloping consolidation like this usually mean? Typically, it says"we're going lower, folks." The center of the consolidation is about about 10,675 and the high is at 10,850 - so the projected target is something like 10,450. However, 10,600 is an important support level. So, we will be watching for a drop through the current support level, or a bounce.
Short Term Dow
The short term implies a strong drop through 10,660 at the Open (by virtue of the consolidation I have marked in the 15 Minute Chart). If we get that drop, you should go with it and set your stop at 10,675, holding on until we reach the 10,450 zone. On the upside, you want to go Long at 10,700 (the center of the small consolidation) and hold your stop at the same value.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are a bit stuck here. We are still Long, with our stop at 10,600. With the formation in the Dow today, I would say our odds are fairly high of pushing down through, and I would consider exiting and going Short at 10,600 and hold on for the ride. Clearly, the market is weak and we must work in the direction it is pointing, even though"logically" we should be seeing a December rally. To the upside, I would say the"line in the sand" is at about 10,750.
NASDAQ & OEX
The NASDAQ was the big vote-caster today in the market's direction election. We saw a continued slide, forming a very clear upper trendline in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. ** We will be watching these lines eagerly for breaks to the upside, because the index is now short term oversold. We are also watching our lower critical support level at 2700. The OEX dropped through 720, pushing down to 710. This is also a critical support level, so we want to watch for breaks or bounces there as well.
In Summary:
Our downside scenario is playing out, which means the fanfare over the election is likely to have fizzled. Now, we are nursing a falling market - watching for signs of support but going with the flow as it drops. We are currently Long the Dow (with our stop at 10,600) and short the NASDAQ (at 2,850) and the OEX (at 720). We have reasonable profits in the latter two, with today's action.
As far as the Dow goes, we will have to see. The chart is starting to worry me. If we drop through 10,650 we are very likely to see 10,450 over the next week. And then?
We might have to revive the diamond again (we have a large diamond formation in the Weekly Chart. If we drop through 10,000 a further move of several thousand points down could result.) We will keep an eye on it. Logically, we should be seeing the market rally here. But, if it isn't going to, we can still make money going with the flow..
Thanks for listening, and Good Luck in your Trading!
Ed Downs
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