Dollar

verfasst von Luke, 15.12.2000, 18:56

Hi!

Hier für Euch ein Auszug aus dem Harry Schultz Letter (www.hsletter.com) zum Dollar. Harry Schultz (HS) ist laut Guiness Buch der Weltrekorde von 1981 bis heute der Welt höchst bezahlte investment consultant. Die performence seines Musterdepots liegt dieses Jahr bei 39 %. HS verlässt sich hauptsächlich auf technische Analyse.

"... The Letter for Millionaires — current & prospective (& former)...
HSL ~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 90 nations)

The US Dollar is the world’s lynchpin. So, it’s with great trepidation that I
announce the Day of the Dollar bull market is coming to an end.
As with the late Mother of all Bull (stock) markets, which took
many months to build a top, the $-bull top may also take some
time. But there’s no assurance of that. With faith in Nasdaq &
tech stocks now evaporating (most of which are down 50-90%),
public confidence is waning. That could lead to sharp turn down.
Just as the bones in your body are linked & each affects its
neighbour, so a fall in the US$ will hit US stocks & the US
economy. Effects will be dramatic. Many outside investors will
pull their $’s out of the US. Whether this is in slow motion like a
gentle Xmas snowfall, or a treacherous ski slope avalanche, is
unknowable at this stage. If my perspective is correct, the conditions
of the past few years are about to be turned on their heads.
Yet, it’s normal, cyclical & a reversion to conditions of not so
long ago. It won’t feel normal because people quickly get used
to what becomes a status quo, & can’t fathom it can change very
much. Complacency has no reward.
That means one should take at least a first step to the exit. Eg,
20% of your US$ position. Even if U got radical & switched by
50%, the worst case event (ie, the $ going higher) would merely
find U evenly balanced, neither gaining nor losing value on any
subsequent currency action—but while still earning interest.
Selling US$ positions here is really “profit-taking”—ie, selling
an item that’s risen vs the other currencies, getting a good price
for the item, & getting into the other item (another currency) at a
near rock-bottom price. Some call it: buy low, sell high. ☺
Whether this will be merely a 2-3 year correction or a major
long-term trend reversal is impossible to classify. But partial
switching now is at least buying insurance. I think of it as simple
diversification. At a later stage, we may find the charts speak
loudly in favour of not just diversification, but a 100% exit from
the US$. Yet for today, a big-toe-in-the-water move seems a
reasonable, calculated, low risk.
We have created new chart tools to measure currencies, dat-ing
back 30+ years, with which we hope to give some useful
guidelines along the way. Eg, we see a possibility we’re in for a
replay of certain stages of the late 60’s, 70’s, 80’s when the $
was suspect. All this is a great nuisance since virtually everyone is
partly, if not largely, sitting in US$’s. To exit $’s means getting
a lower interest rate, picking new currencies, deciding whether to
do the switch in mini-stages, whether to use euro call options, etc. But great
reward beckons. Picking a new currency to switch
into may seem tricky, but there are only a few sound choices. The euro,
a currency nobody (including us) had a nice word for in a year, is now one.
The unloved Canadian $ is another. Swiss franc is a 3rd. The £ may be,
but not just now. The Yen: probably not. As this is a US$ weakness, rather
than strength elsewhere situation, posturing is not by recent normal
rules. Later, most currencies will probably move as “a pack” against
the US$, will make choices easier. Why is the US$ “weak” when it’s
not far down from its multi-yr high? For some of the same reasons the
Nasdaq was weak when it was making one new high after another. It was
pricing itself out of existence. The US$ has priced many US products
out of world mkts, & US current account/ trade deficits are the biggest in
world history, for any nation or any 5 nations combined. The $-chart, like
all the tech stocks, has become almost parabolic. And the flip side is
that most other currencies (eg, the Canadian-$) have become too
cheap. Nothing rises or falls forever. A role reversal seems approximately
at hand. But because the US$ isn’t just any currency,
but rather a world currency, the contiguous, knock-on effects
will be dramatic & change our financial world.
The US$ is “over-owned.” 77.7% of world central bank reserves
are in US$’s. That’s disproportionate to the US share of
world trade. There’ll now be some diversification, esp to the euro.
Just as central banks sold gold, they’ll now sell US$’s. A study
revealed at central bank confab at Jackson Hole, by Prof Obstfeld
& Rogoff, suggests the US$ could drop 24%-40% if foreigners move
quickly to exchange $’s. Foreigners own a record 38% of US."

Single copy price: US$50, DM110, SwFr85, £34, € 56, A$91, C$76, 0.18 oz Gold
Jahresabonnement: US$ 285

Gruss

Luke


<ul> ~ Harry Schultz Letter</ul>
<center>

<HR>

</center>

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• Dollar - Luke, 15.12.2000, 18:56
  • Dollar - Teil II - Luke, 15.12.2000, 19:22
    • Re: Dollar - Teil II - black elk, 15.12.2000, 19:32
      • Werde ich gerne tun! (owt) - Luke, 15.12.2000, 20:15
  • Re: Dollar - Oldy, 15.12.2000, 19:32
  • Re: Vielen Dank für diesen Brief und bitte öfters bringen! - Jesse, 15.12.2000, 20:28