Dollar - Teil II

verfasst von Luke, 15.12.2000, 19:22

Artikel geht weiter:

..."Foreigners own 38 % of the Treasury mkt (44% excluding Fed Reserve holdings), 20% of US corp bonds, 8% of US stks. A change of sentiment, now sud-denly in the air, could start a $-brushfire.
The US$ is also vulnerable because of bad US bank loans,
derivatives, certain commodity shortages, looming recession, the
tech stock catastrophe, the productivity myth, oil denomination,
overvaluation of most US stocks, corporate over-merging, end-less
spin on strong $ which can lead to overnight disenchant-ment,
diminished US image due to Florida, & more. When U are
at the top, the only direction left is down. But $-deflation is not
a bad thing for the US. No country should let itself be so de-pendent
on foreign capital flow. And other nations should not be
dependent on a “foreign” currency. A deflated $ will help US
exports, just as a falling euro helped Euro biz.
Bullish consensus data shows traders very bearish on all non-US$
currencies, extremely bullish on US $-index. The evidence
for the end of the $-bull mkt is overwhelming. The sudden swing
to the euro is only a few days old, but momentum is building like
multiple earthquakes. Fixed-interest global fund mgrs suddenly
favour the euro for the next 12 mos by 73% to 18% for the US$,
says Merrill. John Percival’s Currency Bulletin (email:
CB@ppx.com) recommends non-US accounts repatriate US$’s.
Likes C-$. Advises cover euro shorts. (I did). Likes euro & SwFr.
••Insiders are panicking, most caught off guard. Elitist house
organ, the FT, ran an editorial Dec 1 urging “Keep faith in the
$.” How 2-faced.

PS: Oh yes, I forgot. There is another currency choice. It’s
called gold. That 4-letter word. Historically, when the US$ falls,
gold usually rises. It’s been falling for a long time & due for a
role reversal. When/if confidence slips away from the US$, some
people will turn to gold for at least a part of the switched funds.
It is, after all, the ultimate place to flee to when in doubt or fear.
Confidence is all that holds up any currency today, as all are fiat
(ie, unbacked by anything but political hot air). If that confidence
begins to crack, as it did in 1970’s, then gold will glow.
And for those who don’t like the alternative fiat currency choices,
some will vote for the metal.
Also, realize that breaking the US$ “imperial” stranglehold
on the world will be a great thing for freedom, for tax havens,
for choice. US elites control much of world via the $; eg, they’re
forcing tax havens to tell all, or lose access to US banks, which
they need to clear cheques. If US$ slips to 2 nd place, other money
centres (London/Frankfurt/Paris/Tokyo/Zurich) can detour
around US NY bank control. If oil is priced in euros, not $’s, it
will be positive. Latin nations & HK, who tie their currencies to
US$, will want to reverse that. Any time anyone, any country, or
any thing is too dominant, the result is negative. The US$ stopped
being just a currency & became a controller of actions, in a thou-sand
ways, some years ago. And it happened without our realization
that the price was part of freedom itself."

Gruss

Luke

<ul> ~ The International Harry Schultz Letter</ul>
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gesamter Thread:

• Dollar - Luke, 15.12.2000, 18:56
  • Dollar - Teil II - Luke, 15.12.2000, 19:22
    • Re: Dollar - Teil II - black elk, 15.12.2000, 19:32
      • Werde ich gerne tun! (owt) - Luke, 15.12.2000, 20:15
  • Re: Dollar - Oldy, 15.12.2000, 19:32
  • Re: Vielen Dank für diesen Brief und bitte öfters bringen! - Jesse, 15.12.2000, 20:28