Re: Vielen Dank für diesen Brief und bitte öfters bringen!

verfasst von Jesse, 15.12.2000, 20:28

>Hi!
>Hier für Euch ein Auszug aus dem Harry Schultz Letter (www.hsletter.com) zum Dollar. Harry Schultz (HS) ist laut Guiness Buch der Weltrekorde von 1981 bis heute der Welt höchst bezahlte investment consultant. Die performence seines Musterdepots liegt dieses Jahr bei 39 %. HS verlässt sich hauptsächlich auf technische Analyse.
>"... The Letter for Millionaires — current & prospective (& former)...
>HSL ~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 90 nations)
>The US Dollar is the world’s lynchpin. So, it’s with great trepidation that I
>announce the Day of the Dollar bull market is coming to an end.
>As with the late Mother of all Bull (stock) markets, which took
>many months to build a top, the $-bull top may also take some
>time. But there’s no assurance of that. With faith in Nasdaq &
>tech stocks now evaporating (most of which are down 50-90%),
>public confidence is waning. That could lead to sharp turn down.
>Just as the bones in your body are linked & each affects its
>neighbour, so a fall in the US$ will hit US stocks & the US
>economy. Effects will be dramatic. Many outside investors will
>pull their $’s out of the US. Whether this is in slow motion like a
>gentle Xmas snowfall, or a treacherous ski slope avalanche, is
>unknowable at this stage. If my perspective is correct, the conditions
>of the past few years are about to be turned on their heads.
>Yet, it’s normal, cyclical & a reversion to conditions of not so
>long ago. It won’t feel normal because people quickly get used
>to what becomes a status quo, & can’t fathom it can change very
>much. Complacency has no reward.
>That means one should take at least a first step to the exit. Eg,
>20% of your US$ position. Even if U got radical & switched by
>50%, the worst case event (ie, the $ going higher) would merely
>find U evenly balanced, neither gaining nor losing value on any
>subsequent currency action—but while still earning interest.
>Selling US$ positions here is really “profit-taking”—ie, selling
>an item that’s risen vs the other currencies, getting a good price
>for the item, & getting into the other item (another currency) at a
>near rock-bottom price. Some call it: buy low, sell high. ☺
>Whether this will be merely a 2-3 year correction or a major
>long-term trend reversal is impossible to classify. But partial
>switching now is at least buying insurance. I think of it as simple
>diversification. At a later stage, we may find the charts speak
>loudly in favour of not just diversification, but a 100% exit from
>the US$. Yet for today, a big-toe-in-the-water move seems a
>reasonable, calculated, low risk.
>We have created new chart tools to measure currencies, dat-ing
>back 30+ years, with which we hope to give some useful
>guidelines along the way. Eg, we see a possibility we’re in for a
>replay of certain stages of the late 60’s, 70’s, 80’s when the $
>was suspect. All this is a great nuisance since virtually everyone is
>partly, if not largely, sitting in US$’s. To exit $’s means getting
>a lower interest rate, picking new currencies, deciding whether to
>do the switch in mini-stages, whether to use euro call options, etc. But great
>reward beckons. Picking a new currency to switch
>into may seem tricky, but there are only a few sound choices. The euro,
>a currency nobody (including us) had a nice word for in a year, is now one.
>The unloved Canadian $ is another. Swiss franc is a 3rd. The £ may be,
>but not just now. The Yen: probably not. As this is a US$ weakness, rather
>than strength elsewhere situation, posturing is not by recent normal
>rules. Later, most currencies will probably move as “a pack” against
>the US$, will make choices easier. Why is the US$ “weak” when it’s
>not far down from its multi-yr high? For some of the same reasons the
>Nasdaq was weak when it was making one new high after another. It was
>pricing itself out of existence. The US$ has priced many US products
>out of world mkts, & US current account/ trade deficits are the biggest in
>world history, for any nation or any 5 nations combined. The $-chart, like
>all the tech stocks, has become almost parabolic. And the flip side is
>that most other currencies (eg, the Canadian-$) have become too
>cheap. Nothing rises or falls forever. A role reversal seems approximately
>at hand. But because the US$ isn’t just any currency,
>but rather a world currency, the contiguous, knock-on effects
>will be dramatic & change our financial world.
>The US$ is “over-owned.” 77.7% of world central bank reserves
>are in US$’s. That’s disproportionate to the US share of
>world trade. There’ll now be some diversification, esp to the euro.
>Just as central banks sold gold, they’ll now sell US$’s. A study
>revealed at central bank confab at Jackson Hole, by Prof Obstfeld
>& Rogoff, suggests the US$ could drop 24%-40% if foreigners move
>quickly to exchange $’s. Foreigners own a record 38% of US."
>Single copy price: US$50, DM110, SwFr85, £34, € 56, A$91, C$76, 0.18 oz Gold
>Jahresabonnement: US$ 285
>Gruss
>Luke


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gesamter Thread:

• Dollar - Luke, 15.12.2000, 18:56
  • Dollar - Teil II - Luke, 15.12.2000, 19:22
    • Re: Dollar - Teil II - black elk, 15.12.2000, 19:32
      • Werde ich gerne tun! (owt) - Luke, 15.12.2000, 20:15
  • Re: Dollar - Oldy, 15.12.2000, 19:32
  • Re: Vielen Dank für diesen Brief und bitte öfters bringen! - Jesse, 15.12.2000, 20:28