Fundstück zu dem was auf uns zukommen könnte

verfasst von black elk, 16.12.2000, 18:19

Hi,

ich verfolge den Autor schon seit einigen Wochen und bisher lag er gut,er scheint sich mit den Zyklen gut auszukennen soweit ich das mit meinen bescheidenen Kenntnissen nachprüfen kann.

Besonders der letzte Teil seiner Ausführungen über die US Bonds trifft evtl. den Nagel auf den Kopf (vgl. auch Martin Armstrong und die Entwicklung der Bonds nach dem Crash 1929..kommt es diemal wieder genauso?). Der Autor vermutet daß die US Bonds in den nächsten Wochen (er vermutet bis Ende Januar) als sicherer Hafen dienen werden und eine Rendite von 4,6%!! möglich ist, ähnlich wie vor der Asienkrise! Was danach kam wissen wir ja noch. Es ist doch immer das gleiche Schema, Krise beginnt mit schwachen Währungen (US Dollar zu Euro) dann folgenden die Anleihen (steigende Zinsen, sinkende Kurse) dann folgt der Aktienmarkt. So war es in Brasilien, Rußland, Asien 98,.. und so wird es auch diesmal in Europa + USA sein. Europa wird sich haargenau an die US Vorgaben halten, die Korrelation ist zu groß.

Hier der Text:

From: Larry Haimsohn
Date Posted: December 16, 2000 at 00:51:49
Subject: Fed Easing


There has always been the feeling in the past that the Fed could always bail the market out. This has been the case for a long time and some may think that this will always be the case. They hold out hope that the Fed may again bail the market out yet another time on Dec 19th. Cycles are cycles; some being larger than others, and the larger cycles are not affected by any of these types of actions. Instead Fed actions are a result of where we are as determined by the cycles. I used to find this hard to believe until I had studied cyclical analysis for a time beginning in 1981 when I became a member of The Foundation For the Study of Cycles, the oldest foundation for the study of cyclical analysis in existence. It was a few years later that I realized for sure without a doubt, no ifs ands or maybes that the cycles were going to come in where they should no matter what. The Feds action or lack of it or any other event may distort the market for a day or two, but if you saw where the cycles came in you could see that all the actions of the Fed are as a RESULT OF WHERE THE CYCLES ARE: consequently their"REACTION", emphasis on"RE". It happens at this time that the turn date that occurs no later than Dec. 27th; and not before the 26th, IS TOO LARGE A TURN FOR THE FED TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. I believe it is a low, and if it is, it will be a doosy. In the unlikely event that it is a high, it will stand out like a sore thumb afterwards. IN NO WAY is this market going to bailed out again by the Fed, because they don't have the amount of bail that would be required. At some point, like precisely the last week of Jan. as I have mentioned many times before, it will appear that the Fed has again done it's wonders; and again because THIS IS WHERE THE CYCLES BOTTOM!!! However; it will not be before the market will have already been thoroughly washed out by the tidal wave that is fastly approaching. At this time it could be likened to the Fed steering the Poseidon and looking up only to see the wave on top of them. What difference would it make what they decided to do? Prayers would probably be the best choice. I'm not really cynical, even though I may seem so. You see, some of you have a choice as to whether to board the ship or not, KNOWING in advance what will happen. Anyone that says they KNOW what the market is going to do should instead say that this is what they THINK the market is going to do. The only reason I'm being so emphatic is that I KNOW WHERE SOME HUGE CYCLES COME IN. I have mentioned these before, but to reitterate one of them in the bond market may be important at this time. Since the lowest yields on the long term treasury in the 1900's, which was 1946, the bond market has consistently made turns on every fibonacci year +or- a year and continued in that trend until the next fibonacci year. No matter how large the swings may appear to have been since the 1981 peak in yields ( 35 years from 1946 ), the fact remains that the trend on long term rates has remained inside a channel since then, as they head lower in yields toward their date with the 55 year turn due in 2001 +or- a year. Let's narrow that down with a smaller cycle since that 55 year turn is so LARGE, HUGE, MONSTOROUS, BIGGER THAN LIFE, IMMENSE, ENORMUOS, GARGANTUAN, MONUMENTAL, TREMENDOUS, AWESOME, GALATIC,GIGANTIC, and"TITANIC". I HOPE I MADE MY POINT ON THE SIZE OF THIS BOND TURN, the largest you will see for the rest of your lives. The monthly fibbonacci count since the Sept.1981 low clearly shows a large turn at every fibonacci month +or- one month. The last resolution of that was the high in prices Sept. 1993( 144 months later ) The next turn is due this Feb. the 233rd month +or- one month. If you start another monthly count from Sept. 1993 you again will see the same pattern of turns on fibonacci months from there with the next being the 89th month; obviously, Feb. 2001. I'm using a 40 week cycle ( 39-42 weeks- highs or lows), squares, and some other counts to narrow it down from there, and I get the first week of Feb. 2001. Consider for a moment what it may be that causes long term treasuries to reach as low as a 4.6% yield in the next 7 weeks or so, and to never see that low a yield again. Also consider that the bonds are going up in a flight to safety just as they did in the 1998 decline making their low in yields just 3 days prior to the low in almost every index except the Dow. Whatever that EVENT may be there is one thing it will be for sure; HUGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good luck, Buy puts or pray. WOULD LOVE TO BE A BULL, THE BEAR, Larry

Grüsse black elk



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gesamter Thread:

• Fundstück zu dem was auf uns zukommen könnte - black elk, 16.12.2000, 18:19
  • Re: Fundstück zu dem was auf uns zukommen könnte - JüKü, 16.12.2000, 18:37
  • Gedanken zum Abend - Tobias, 16.12.2000, 21:23