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Mix-Ansicht- DailyReckoning vom 01.06.00 - NickLeeson, 02.06.2000, 02:58
DailyReckoning vom 01.06.00
Im heutigen DailyReckoning (www.dailyreckoning.com) bringt Bill Bonner einen sehr lesenswerten Kommentar zur Kreditinflation in den USA. Hier ein Auszug:
***"The one truly distinctive feature of the New Economy," wrote Robert J. Samuelson recently,"is that consumers, as a group, have virtually stopped saving. In 1991, the personal savings rate (savings as a share of after-tax income) was 8.3%; in 1999 it was 2.3%."
*** Samuelson notes that even with computers, productivity gains were larger in the 1950s than in the 1990s -- a point I've made to you often. Unemployment, too, was lower in the late-`60s than it is now. So what's new about the New Economy?
*** Well, Samuelson, goes on:"Every percentage point drop in the savings rate is worth about $66 billion in extra consumer spending. Americans may still make deposits in savings accounts or 401(k) plans. But consumers offset these savings by borrowing or by spending stock profits. It is this spending spree -- based heavily on people's stock wealth -- that has expanded the economy, profits and hiring..."
*** But spending money does not create wealth -- it destroys it. It creates the illusion of wealth, in the form of economic activity...and consumption. But real wealth is created by saving and investing -- not by consuming.
*** But, bulls will reply, billions of dollars ARE being invested in the New Economy. More than ever before, venture capital funds...and ordinary stock buyers...are contributing to the world's wealth of capital. More entrepreneurs are starting up enterprises. More tech and business innovations are being tested.
*** Alas, when a dead-end dot-com rents office space, buys equipment, hires people with body piercings and orders out for pizzas, capital is not created -- it is consumed, just as it is used up by people who take a holiday in Paris. For the world's wealth to increase, there must be a return on the capital invested. The new companies must produce a benefit that society is willing to pay for...and willing to pay enough for so that the company can clear the"hurdle rate" -- returning enough profit to make the whole thing worthwhile. When the hurdle rate goes to zero -- as it did for the Nets and techs -- the whole thing becomes an exercise in self- deception. Investors pretend to invest. Entrepreneurs pretend to create wealth. And stock market indexes pretend that everyone is getting richer.
Und zur Situation in Japan bemerkt er:
*** The Japanese are throwing themselves in front of trains. Suicide by train is such a problem that they're putting up mirrors so that, as a railway official put it,"people will reflect before acting."
...
Even overseas, where the bubble has been generally less inflated, Boo.com collapsed in the United Kingdom. WorldOnline, the big Dutch Internet play, has flopped. Softbank and Hikari Tsushin, in Japan, are down so much their executives are considering a one-way visit to the train station...perhaps to reflect on what happened...
mfg, NickLeeson
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