Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- etwas Kauderwelsch über Forex - Kurse von heute.................. - Emerald, 27.07.2005, 16:08
etwas Kauderwelsch über Forex - Kurse von heute..................
-->
Good Morning. The US dollar traded marginally higher against majors during the overnight session but this was later reversed. The dollar-renminbi fix was higher at CNY 8.1128 from yesterday's 8.1099. It is noteworthy that today's fix is higher than the first fix after the revaluation, which was CNY 8.1111. This suggests some two-way risk to dollar-renminbi near-term in line with broader dollar moves. Dollar-renminbi outright forwards moved higher again. The Australian dollar weakened on lower than expected Q2 CPI inflation. CPI rose 2.5% yoy compared to expectations of a 2.7% increase. The aussie-kiwi cross corrected lower on the CPI data but also on an improvement in New Zealand business confidence. We consider the move lower in aussie-kiwi to be just a correction as we expect this cross to trend higher over the medium term. Australian commodity prices have risen sharply this year while New Zealand commodity prices have declined. Furthermore, we believe the aussie remains very cheap relative to the kiwi from a valuation point of view. Sterling failed to depreciate on moderately dovish comments from the Bank of England's Large. Large stressed that the cooling of the housing market may be reducing consumers' spending, but pointed out that it remains too early to conclude that the recent sharp drop in consumer spending is permanent. The CE4 currencies excluding the Hungarian forint have been trading in tight ranges against the euro for a few weeks now. We see no reason for this to change near-term. The central bank of Poland will announce the result of its policy meeting this morning. The consensus is for a 25bps rate cut, which would bring the key rate down to 4.75%. Recent Polish data have been strong so the market will be focusing on hints about when the easing cycle may come to an end. The forint continues to grind stronger against the euro, in our view, driven by high local yields. Technical Analysis: US dollar extends strength within recent ranges. EUR/USD remains heavy within its 1.1865-1.2290 six-week trading range. GBP/USD 1.73 long-term support is nearby. USD/CHF 1.3080 is the break-up level for last year's high at 1.3225. USD/JPY strength targets 113.70 and the 114.50/115 long-term resistance. EUR/JPY refocuses the topside for 137.20. USD/BRL and USD/MXN showed early signs of rejecting strong resistances at 2.51/55 and 10.80/10.87. Medium-term remains bearish.
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
