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Mix-Ansicht- JPM und GS zu Palladium - Per_Jakobsson, 28.07.2005, 17:02
JPM und GS zu Palladium
-->JP Morgan (27.07.2005)
Kursziele für Palladium werden gesenkt: Q4 2005: 195$, 2006: 240, 2007: 300$
....Russia is believed to hold substantial, albeit secret stockpiles of the metal. Russian sales behaviour appears, these days, to be measured, but the possibility remains that erratic behaviour may reemerge. In the eyes of the market the stock represents an overhang, in our view. In any case, we see it as representing a key uncertainty that makes price forecasting complicated....
...We have lowered our price expectations over the next three years. However, we maintain our long held view that the palladium price is related to the platinum price and so maintain that if platinum averages 820$/oz in the LT (todays money), than palladium should average half that, or 410$/oz. Our view is dictated by the view of economics of producing autocatalysts for petrol vehicles. We have stated many times that timing is difficult but that it remains, in our view, a question of when, not if, the price reaches what we firmly believe to be its natural (or equilibrium) relationship with platinum. The graph presented in the platinum section illustrates the relationship over the last 20 years.We will be carefully watching developments at North American Palladium, the Canadian Mine, which is beset with economic problems. In the event that production was to cease, there may be a catalyst for the palladium price. Furthermore, we note that the 800koz, paid to Stillwater by Norilsk in part payment for shares, is likely to be fully placed in the market next year - reducing supply to the market, at that time.
Goldman Sachs (11.07.2005)
...The palladium market is burdened by large above-ground stocks after four years of market surpluses. While demand is supported by continued switching by automakers from platinum into palladium, the development of palladium-based diesel catalytic converters, and the surprising success of palladium jewellry in the chinese market, it will likely be several years before the palladium overhang can be worked down.
We expect the spread between platinum and palladium to converge over longer term.With palladium near historically low levels and platinum still near historical highs, we believe the substitution efforts in the jewellry and catalytic converter markets will gather pace, ultimately providing support for the palladium market. However, given the uncertainty surrounding current stock levels, this upside risk to prices may be several years off...
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