Altes Elliott-Wellen-Forum - Zur Info: Debt Service Ratio -- High Score

Zur Info: Debt Service Ratio -- High Score

verfasst von marsch, 01.08.2005, 08:54

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<div style="margin-left: 40px; font-weight: bold;">Household debt service payments and financial obligations as a percentage of disposable personal income; seasonally adjusted (die komplette Tabelle <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm" target="_blank">HIER)</a>

</div> <div style="font-weight: bold;"> <table style="font-family: Arial; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(217, 240, 239); width: 600px; margin-left: 40px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" frame="void"> <tbody> <tr align="center"> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="1" rowspan="3" id="h1" align="center" valign="top"> Quarter</th> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="1" rowspan="3" id="h2" align="center" valign="top"> DSR</th> <th colspan="5" rowspan="1" id="h3" style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;"> FOR <hr></th> </tr> <tr align="center"> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="1" rowspan="2" id="h4" align="center" valign="top"> Total</th> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="1" rowspan="2" id="h5" align="center" valign="top"> Renter</th> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="3" rowspan="1" id="h6" align="center"> Homeowner <hr></th> </tr> <tr align="center"> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="1" rowspan="1" id="h7" align="center" width="5%"> Total</th> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="1" id="h8" align="center" width="5%"> Mortgage</th> <th style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" colspan="1" id="h9" align="center" width="5%"> Consumer</th> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" valign="undefined">...</td> <td style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" valign="undefined">...</td> <td style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" valign="undefined">...</td> <td style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" valign="undefined">...</td> <td style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" valign="undefined">...</td> <td style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" valign="undefined">...</td> <td style="text-align: center; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" valign="undefined">...</td> </tr> <tr align="center"> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h1" width="5%">04q1</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h2" width="5%">13.17</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h4" width="5%">18.35</td> <td headers="h3 h5" style="width: 5%; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;">31.82</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h7" width="5%">15.83</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h8" width="5%">9.82</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h9" width="5%">6.01</td> </tr> <tr align="center"> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h1" width="5%">04q2</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h2" width="5%">13.17</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h4" width="5%">18.31</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h5" width="5%">31.48</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h7" width="5%">15.85</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h8" width="5%">9.91</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h9" width="5%">5.94</td> </tr> <tr align="center"> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h1" width="5%">04q3</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h2" width="5%">13.34</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h4" width="5%">18.47</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h5" width="5%">31.44</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h7" width="5%">16.05</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h8" width="5%">10.10</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h9" width="5%">5.95</td> </tr> <tr align="center"> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h1" width="5%">04q4</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h2" width="5%">13.18</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h4" width="5%">18.22</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h5" width="5%">30.87</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h7" width="5%">15.88</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h8" width="5%">10.09</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h9" width="5%">5.79</td> </tr> <tr align="center"> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h1" width="5%">05q1</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h2" width="5%">13.40</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h4" width="5%">18.45</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h5" width="5%">30.63</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h7" width="5%">16.16</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h8" width="5%">10.35</td> <td style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0); font-family: Arial;" headers="h3 h6 h9" width="5%">5.82</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <table style="font-family: Arial; color: rgb(153, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(217, 240, 239); width: 600px; margin-left: 40px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" frame="void"> </table> <div style="font-style: italic; margin-left: 40px;">1.) The household debt service ratio (DSR) is an estimate of the ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income. Debt payments consist of the estimated required payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt. 
2.) The financial obligations ratio (FOR) adds automobile lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners' insurance, and property tax payments to the debt service ratio.</div> 
1.) 13,4% beim DSR (debt servise ratio), das ist HIGH SCORE!!!!! 
Der langfristige Vergleich für den Überblick. Der"High Score" ist zu erahnen.
 <div style="margin-left: 40px;"><img style="width: 474px; height: 284px;" alt="" src="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/TDSP_Max.png"> </div> Kurzfristig. Hier sehen wir jetzt sehr deutlich, daß die aktuellen 13,4% ein Allzeithoch sind (wenn auch vorerst wirklich nur minimal)!!!

<div style="margin-left: 40px;"><img style="width: 474px; height: 284px;" alt="" src="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/TDSP_5yrs.png">
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Besonders sticht ins Auge (Tabelle), daß die Hypothekenzahlungen (Mortgages) stark angestiegen sind. Dazu vielleicht das hier: <a href="http://www.wsc.de/index.php?id=8759" target="_blank">"</a><a href="http://www.wsc.de/index.php?id=8759" target="_blank">Die Kreditfalle am Immobilenmarkt"</a> 

Außerdem: 
<div style="margin-left: 40px;">..... Die zuerst von Platzen der Blase Betroffenen sind die Hausbesitzer mit variablen Hypothekenzinsen. Ein düsteres Omen: In den letzten drei Jahren hat sich deren Anzahl auf 59% von Gesamt erhöht (man hoffte auf immer weiter fallende Zinssätze). Steigende Zinsen wirken hier wie ein Axtschlag. Aber selbst die Schuldner mit festen Zinssätzen würden wegen der einbrechenden Konjunktur und dem Unvermögen weitere Kredite und damit wie bisher üblich, Bargeld zwecks Konsum aus der Immobilie zu ziehen, erheblich zu leiden haben. ..... Aus: <a href="http://www.konstanzer-kreis.de/Publikationen/archiv/bocker/immosuchtnadel.pdf" target="_blank">"Die Immobilienblase sucht ihre Nadel</a><a href="http://www.konstanzer-kreis.de/Publikationen/archiv/bocker/immosuchtnadel.pdf" target="_blank">"</a></div>
Droht da ungemach??

2.) Financial obligations ratio (FOR), ist die aktuelle Zahl zwar nicht auf Allzeithoch...
 <div style="margin-left: 40px;"><img style="width: 474px; height: 284px;" alt="" src="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FODSP_Max.png">
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...-was nicht weiter verwundert, denke ich z.B. an die Nullzins-Verkaufspolitik der US-Automobilhersteller seit ein paar Jahren, was zwar gut für diese Statistik hier ist, schlecht dagegen für die <a href="http://www.faz.net/s/Rub2F5E2A09D56442239A843519D55ABE3B/Doc%7EEA8EF287B57D14DA2A1F59B14E375B5B3%7EATpl%7EEcommon%7EScontent.html" target="_blank">Autohersteller</a>- aber auf reichlich hohem Niveau allemal. Und all das, obwohl die Zinsen, trotz der Anhebungen der letzten Zeit, immer noch extrem niedrig sind.

P.S.: Nicht ganz unwichtig!! <div style="margin-left: 40px; font-family: Arial;">In addition to providing data for the first quarter of 2005, this release incorporates both newly received and revised historical data. The 2004:Q4 dips in the ratios partially reflect an increase in income due to the one-time Microsoft dividend payment. In the absence of the Microsoft dividend payment, the estimated values of the ratios in the fourth quarter would be: DSR, 13.32; FOR, 18.43; renter FOR, 30.98; homeowner FOR, 16.08; homeowner mortgage FOR, 10.22; homeowner consumer FOR, 5.86.
</div> Einmaleffekt!!? Ich glaube kaum, daß das SO wiederholbar ist.

Grüße

MARSCH

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Zur Info: Debt Service Ratio -- High Score - marsch, 01.08.2005, 08:54