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Mix-Ansicht- Genug um den Tag zu beginnen? - Emerald, 03.08.2005, 06:53
Genug um den Tag zu beginnen?
-->The dollar retained a soft tone against major currencies during London trading. The yen was supported by the upbeat remarks from BoJ governor Fukui. He said “somewhere from the end of this year to the start of next year, […] there is a high likelihood that consumer prices will turn positive. […] We believe the economy will emerge from its soft patch relatively soon, but we will need to make a more rigorous judgment to decide any shift in policy”. Given the uncertainty related to the vote on the postal system privatisation later this week, we remain caution on dollar-yen. The Nikkei hit a 13-month intraday high at 11982.2, before closing almost flat at 11940.2. Dollar-renminbi slipped under 8.1040, making another new low at the PBOC fixing at the local close. European currencies were more stable, with euro-dollar trading in a tight range around 1.2220 through the European morning. Euro-Swiss fell to 1.5560, as the Swiss PMI rose to 52.4 in July from 51.8 in June, confirming last week’s improvement in the KOF leading indicator. In the past week, yield spreads have moved in favour of the Swiss franc, with the Euroswiss interest rate futures curve now appearing to price in a rate hike by March-2006.Commodity-related currencies were well supported. The Australian dollar appreciated to USD 0.7650, following the stronger-than-expected 1.3% mom rise in retail sales and a narrower trade deficit in June. Kiwi rose to 0.6880.Emerging Asian currencies also firmed against the dollar. Although a Korean central bank official said that the yen-won cross is still low, dollar-won dipped below 1020. Dollar-Turkish lira rose 0.4%, to 1.325 after the French prime minister said this morning that Turkey had to formally recognize Cyprus before accession talks could start on 3 October. We would avoid lira-longs unless there is either a larger correction (rise in dollar-lira) or the French prime minister alters his stance. Formally all EU member states must ratify the negotiation strategy, currently in its draft stage, before membership talks even begin. Given today’s comments, France may not agree to the strategy.Dollar-Brazilian real will probably take some cues from today’s testimony by Jose Dirceu, President Lula’s former chief of staff, contesting accusations of breaking parliamentary rules.Technical analysis: Focus is on EUR/USD breaking up from its six-week trading range, with confirmation at 1.2250. Our MT target remains at 1.2555. USD/JPY could start a downturn for 109.90/70. Need to close below 111.95 to confirm. EUR/JPY targets 137.20, which should cap. EUR/NOK tries to break the 7.83 low - for 7.75/72 then 7.55. EUR/CHF weakened to weigh on 1.5575/55, which should hold.
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