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Mix-Ansicht- .......... und jetzt auch noch f. unsere englischen Freunde: - Emerald, 26.08.2005, 20:58
.......... und jetzt auch noch f. unsere englischen Freunde:
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OIL: Question Mark!
The Oil Price Will Drop Again!
Special report released by the end of August 2005
While during almost four years we have been compelled to cope with a steadily rising price of oil, recently coupled with a slightly increasing Dollar exchange rate, we keep being bombarded from all sides with forecasts of a further rapid and exorbitant price increase of the"Jurassic Park" fuel - petroleum.
This outright scare-mongering has attained a critical stage during recent weeks, when the spot price per barrel reached $ 66.00 and even exceeded it shortly. However, there is every probability that such high-tide prices will soon belong to the past and be kept at a far lower level because the latest upward swings of petroleum's price scale are merely due to psychological scare-mongering. An enormously powerful oil lobby, seconded by the profiteering dealers and brokers, may have reached their wits' end. We believe that the far-fetched reasons why a barrel of oil should rather soon be worth $100.00 and even more are just illusionary hocus-pocus, not based on any reasonable economic arguments.
Which causes could lower substantially the oil prices? It is often not realized that during recent years the development of alternative energy sources has been promoted on worldwide level. Solar energy, wind power, natural gas, biofuels, nuclear and hydroelectric power plants as well as the highly promising fuel cell power systems are already successfully competing with petroleum in many areas of application.
The hype created with respect to extrapolations of Chinese oil demand is in many ways unfounded because this country has secured plentiful supplies lasting many years by purchase contracts signed with friendly nations. Additionally, it is quite certain that China's unbridled economic boom might come to a stop at any time, due to export restrictions and/or to the unchecked overheating of the economy being subjected to a sudden correction, no matter whether planned or unplanned.
After withdrawal and departure of the U.S. troops and their allies, the war-damaged country Iraq cannot avoid pumping and exporting again more oil in order to finance the recovery and reconstruction urgently needed by this nation, thereby resuming its premier role as a global player in the petroleum field. Despite their being Opec members or even for this very reason, the neighbouring countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, will hardly be able to keep aloof from the effect on prices of this additional supply, thus adjusting themselves to the changed market situation.
Finally, a general worldwide recession is quite on the cards, which could curb the demand for oil and thus bring about a downward price correction to a reasonable level due to"fire sales" and closing of long positions by speculators on the futures market. Maybe we will again see an oil glut in one or two years!
We feel that the supposedly still existing and - often due to selfish reasons - frequently exaggerated imponderables could become meaningless overnight, thereby quickly triggering a staggering drop of prices. One may add the comment"The market is always right", and that's why the market will unfailingly correct the price exaggerations having characterized for a long time the oil business, either gingerly or quite probably in an abrupt manner.
(Emerald).
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