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Mix-Ansicht- Kennedy Gammage: The Hindenburg Omen - A Potential Stock Market Crash Signal - Amanito, 23.09.2005, 17:04
- am 20.9.05 generiert - Amanito, 23.09.2005, 17:08
- Wiesen die Insider-Positionierungen nicht eben noch auf Hausse!? (owT) - Maurer, 24.09.2005, 12:07
- Kostolany: An der Börse ist eben alles möglich, auch das Gegenteil ;-))) (o.Text) - Ecki1, 26.09.2005, 18:35
am 20.9.05 generiert
-->20-09-05: A Hindenburg Omen stock market crash signal was generated tonight, according to the official statistics per the Wall Street Journal as reported by Kennedy Gammage. According to Kennedy, there were 78 New Lows and 167 New 52 week highs on the NYSE Tuesday, with total issues traded at 3,442. This works out to a common new lows/new highs figure of 78, which when divided by 3,442 gets us above the 2.2 percent threshold, at 2.26 percent. The other two conditions necessary for an official Hindenburg Omen stock market crash signal tonight are evident. The 10 week moving average of the NYSE is rising, and the McClellan Oscillator is negative.
What this means is that there is a high probability that a stock market crash is coming in the next 30 days, and likely sooner rather than later. This is not a guarantee of one, but signals that the risk of one occurring is quite high. The PPT will likely jump into action here and we will be able to observe two heavyweights trying their best to drive the market their way. The PPT won back in April 2004, the last time we got such a signal. That has not always been the case, and may not be so this time. Please be alert with your long positions. The signals remain valid for 30 days. More confirming Hindenburg Omens are possible, and normal.
This confirms the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment stock market crash signal we got on Friday. Again, these are crash risk signals, not a guarantee. The Omen and Michigan signals mean we have gone from orange alert to red. Purple would be the meltdown is underway, to apply the color scheme the government's NOAA uses to classify geomagnetic solar storms for our purposes.
As for the Fed, they did what we expected them to do, increasing short-term rates another quarter in order to trump up confidence that the economy is stronger than it is, hoping to seduce markets to believe same. But in contradiction to the pretense of tightening, the Fed's actions will continue to be to flood markets with money -- because they are truly quite fragile.
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