Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Die türk. Nationalbank intervenierte heute mittag zum 4. Male - Emerald, 04.10.2005, 17:47
Die türk. Nationalbank intervenierte heute mittag zum 4. Male
-->und verkauft Lira gegen US$ im Wert von 1,5 Milliarden USDollars.
und trotzdem: heisst es im nachfolgenden Text:
-------------------- The Longer °°°°°°° The Stronger --------------------
was will man da noch mehr?
quote:
We recommend investors buy the Turkish lira against the euro. The Turkish central bank intervened today selling the lira to prevent"existing and expected volatility under the influence of the start of the European Accession process". However this intervention is unlikely to significantly weaken the lira, in our view. EU accession talks with Turkey formally kicked-off last night, supporting investor interest in Turkish equities and bonds. Moreover we believe real Turkish yields are likely to be kept high for longer, to help curb inflation. We see the dollar strengthening against most European currencies and thus recommend investors fund lira-longs out of the euro rather than the dollar.We view EU accession as an anchor for reformist economic policy in Turkey even though we fully recognize that it will be a very long and challenging process for Turkey to join the EU. The EU accession negotiations for the 10 countries which joined the EU in May 2004 were an important anchor for economic transformation in those countries. For the CE4 countries, this economic transformation attracted sizeable FDI inflows. The goal of EU membership and the promise of eventual subsidies from the EU, helped coax generally responsible economic policy from the governments of the candidate countries.Outside the EU 'premia' we see the lira supported by high yields. Turkish real and nominal yields (14% 12-month FX implied) are one of the highest in the emerging markets and likely to be elevated for longer as the MPC struggles to bring annual CPI inflation from the current 8% down to its ambitious (5%) 2006 target.The big disinflation period for Turkey was from 2002 to 2004 but since March this year, the annual CPI growth rate has been broadly stable. We think the central bank will need to keep interest rates high for an extended period and our economists see only 25bps of rate cuts by end-2005. The inflation goals of the central bank also probably limit the scope of FX intervention: intervention can be used to prevent excessive lira appreciation but not realistically to trigger a significant depreciation, in our view. Before today, the Turkish central bank had intervened on the open FX market to sell the lira on several occasions this year and most of them were short-lived operations.
unquote.
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