Tesla? (war ich unfreundlich?) dafür gleich noch dies.................

verfasst von Emerald, 05.10.2005, 15:31

-->FX News: von soeben:

Good morning. The yen sell-off that has been grinding towards the 114.50 level reversed sharply this morning, triggering more broad-based dollar weakness. We see further upside for the yen from here as it returns to the middle of its recent range versus the greenback. Markets may grow tired of selling yen: yesterday, several Asian central banks reiterated their intention to raise rates, helping trigger a broad dollar-Asia move lower. This helped provide some relief for yen weakness that was looking increasingly overdone with the Nikkei soaring and talk of crowded export orders in the 114.50-115 range. Indeed, this morning it seems exporters got impatient, and a whiff above 114.40 triggered substantial yen buying vs the dollar that paused only briefly below the 114 figure, and has re-accelerated as we write. This has put the dollar more broadly on the defensive. Yesterday's round of Fed speak didn't offer any additional momentum for the dollar, reinforcing the notion that the broad dollar rally has stalled and opening the door to a test of the other side. Yet euro gains have been sluggish, and we see this rally as quite fragile. Despite solid services survey data from around the region, euro gains are already running out of steam well short of the 1.20 figure. Looking ahead, US yields continue to swing in favor of the greenback, and we expect tomorrow's ECB announcement - and follow-up press conference - to reinforce the"perma-hold" policy stance, in contrast with an increasingly hawkish Fed. For sterling, yield differentials are even more bearish, with US two-year yields now higher than they are in the UK for the first time since late 2000.The Antipodean dollars are underperforming this session, kicked off by the Aussie as building approvals plunged 8.0% for the second month in a row. Both currencies are weaker, with the Aussie testing back below the 0.76 figure.Emerging Asia's currencies firmed against the dollar. The rupiah strengthened 1.6% to 10,031 per dollar on expectations of high and rising interest rates. Korean yields inched higher bringing the week change to +18bps on 2-year swaps (to 4.50%) and supporting the won. Dollar-Philippine peso dipped even though annual CPI growth fell in September.The South African rand fell for the fourth consecutive day to 6.46 per dollar. This mirrors a dip of both gold prices and South African yields. The yield decline is probably temporary though as new car sales rose sharply in September, suggesting a rebound of retail sales from the relatively soft 3.2% annual growth rate reported for July. Technical focus: US Dollar strength is finely poised near long-term resistances - EUR/USD 1.1865/1.1760/1.1590 and USD/JPY 114.50/114.95, which we expect it to reject. With AUD TWI at an eight-year high, we are bullish AUD crosses. AUD/CHF needs a sustained break of 0.9925 to resume its uptrend. EUR/AUD sees 1.5535 as a MT breakdown point. AUD/JPY broke 86.35 to start an up leg. We remain bullish CAD crosses. USD/CAD resistance at 1.1820/60 is expected to cap. EUR/CAD weakness is on course for 1.36.

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gesamter Thread:

• OT: Wie lange wollt Ihr noch koa-lieren? - Emerald, 05.10.2005, 13:55
  • Re: Ich bin sehr enttäuscht, Emerald....... - ---Elli---, 05.10.2005, 14:24
    • Re: Re: Ich bin sehr enttäuscht, Emerald....... - Mysterious, 05.10.2005, 14:30
    • Re: Re: Ich bin sehr enttäuscht, Emerald....... - Emerald, 05.10.2005, 15:08
      • Re: Re: Supper, Emerald! - Toni, 05.10.2005, 15:22
        • Re: Re: Supper, Emerald! - - Elli -, 05.10.2005, 15:58
      • Re: Re: Ich bin sehr enttäuscht, Emerald....... - TESLA, 05.10.2005, 15:27
        • Tesla? (war ich unfreundlich?) dafür gleich noch dies................. - Emerald, 05.10.2005, 15:31
  • Re: OT: Sehe ich auch so! Weg mit den Personen, her mit den Programmen! (o.Text) - Ecki1, 05.10.2005, 16:14
  • Re: OT: Wie lange wollt Ihr noch koa-lieren? - CRASH_GURU, 05.10.2005, 16:31