Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- eine,tabularasa' - Bestätigung? doch Gold legt schon wieder zu heute morgen! - Emerald, 06.10.2005, 06:38
eine,tabularasa' - Bestätigung? doch Gold legt schon wieder zu heute morgen!
-->Corrections are the order of the day as gold shares, oil, energy shares and resource shares fell from overbought levels today, while the stock market fell to a three month low.
Gold itself is holding firmly near the highs as renewed inflation concerns are keeping it firm. And while the C rise could end at any time, keep an eye on Dec gold as it remains very strong and the C rise is underway by staying above $460. A close above $476 would show great strength. Dec silver is strong above $7.25 and it still has room to rise further. A close above $7.60 means it could rise to the $8-$8.20 level. Gold shares are coming down from the highs with the stock market influence. Gold shares are basically in an overbought area and while they could still move higher with gold because the C rise is not over yet, they're looking vulnerable. Long-term investors hold or take some profits but don't sell all. Traders sell or keep close stops. XAU is still very strong above 106 but even if it declines to 100, the rise since May will remain solid (see Webextra). Copper continues to soar as demand is outweighing supply. Copper is very strong above $1.66 and especially above $1.73 basis November.
Today oil closed at an eight week low and if it now stays below $63, the first downward correction since its sharp run up started in May will be underway. Oil could decline to the $57 area and in a worst case, it could fall to $52, its major support. Long-term investors keep your resource and energy shares but traders sell if you have them or keep close stops.
Today was a bad day for the stock market. The weaker Dow Industrials has been leading the market and today it closed at a three month low, which is clearly below its 40 week moving average and the uptrend since 2003, a bearish sign. It's now weak below 10520 and if it closes below 10280, it could fall to its low for the year near 10000. Today's decline in the S&P500 wiped out the gains for 2005. It's vulnerable below 1222 and outright weak below 1200. The strongest sectors this year, the Utilities and Amex, had the biggest percentage decline today. With these sectors overbought versus the Industrials, we could start seeing a shift and if we do, it will likely be a bad sign for the market in general. Nasdaq is weak below 2150. The Utilities are still strong unless they close below 405.
The bond market has been declining for five weeks and it will remain under pressure with the yields above 4.5% on the 30 year and 4.25% on the 10 year. But this could change soon and it would once the yields close below these levels. The major bond trend remains up. Keep your positions.
The U.S. dollar index rose to a resistance level near 90.40, while its short-term indicator is overbought (see Webextra). This means its upside for now may be limited, especially because its medium-term indicator is still on the decline and it has room to decline further (see Webextra). Keep an eye on 90.40 this week. If, however, the dollar index closes and stays above 90.40, it could rise to 92. The euro, Swiss franc and British pound are holding above their July lows and as long as they stay above them at 1.19 euro,.7670 SF and 1.7380 BP, they are still poised to rise. The New Zealand and Australian dollar are stable. The Kiwi is showing firmness above.6800 while the Aussie is stable above.7550. The strongest currency, the Canadian dollar, is taking a breather. If it now stays below.8500, it could decline to.8350 but even if it does, the rise since May will remain solid and strong. The Yen is the weakest currency as it fell to another 16½ month low yesterday. It's weak below.8900.
Warm wishes and until next week,
Pamela and Mary Anne
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