Re: Gary North Oldie - Inflationary Depression

verfasst von weissgarnix, 11.10.2005, 11:45

-->damit kann man übereinstimmen oder auch nicht. aber er trifft meines Erachtens den Nagel auf den Kopf mit seiner Aussage zum Gold: im nächsten Moment nach dem totalen Krach interessiert sich für Gold keine Sau, sondern die Leute werden sich fragen, wie sie überleben. und zwar alle ohne Ausnahme, denn selbst die"Reichen" werden - zwar eventuell gut ausgestattet mit Kaviar, Koks und Schampus - doch gewaltig um ihre Sicherheit fürchten und es steht zu zweifeln, dass sie die dann mit Gold einkaufen könnten. darin liegt meines Erachtens der kardinale Denkfehler aller Goldbugs. was nach der"Currency reform" kommt, sei dahingestellt, aber bis dahin ist es ein weiter weg. vermutlich wird aber Gold dann entweder völlig belanglos (weil es danach erst recht keiner braucht), oder es wird tatsächlich zum neuen Währungsstandard, dafür aber verboten.





>Interessanter Gedanke: Depression geht einher mit verringerter Arbeitsteilung, gleich geringere Produktivität gleich mehr Gold notwendig zum überleben, also doch besser Farm kaufen:
>BEST OF GARY NORTH
>November 23, 2004
>"The Federal Reserve Will Prevent Another Great Depression"
>
>This widely promoted falsehood is based on a definition of"depression" that
>misrepresents reality: depressions as always deflationary. People think of
>economic depressions in terms of falling prices, bankruptcies, and
>foreclosures. This is incorrect. A depression results when the division of
>labor shrinks. More specialized jobs disappear.
>A depression is marked by high unemployment. People lose their jobs and
>cannot afford to buy basic commodities. It is marked by falling real income.
>An inflationary crack-up boom has all of these features. In a deflationary
>depression, people cannot buy things because they have no money. In an
>inflationary depression, people cannot buy things because there is so little
>offered for sale. The results are the same in each case: bankruptcies, high
>unemployment, and falling real income.
>In the German inflation of 1921-23, there was high unemployment. It cost
>more in pounds sterling to live in Berlin in 1923 than it cost in London.
>That was because people with foreign currencies could not find ready sellers
>of most goods. The disruption caused by the inflation had put manufacturers
>and middlemen out of business. The division of labor had collapsed. You
>could buy a few luxury goods that were being sold by desperate citizens, but
>you could not buy basic items of commerce. These had to be imported from
>abroad. The supply chain grew ever-more chaotic because the common currency
>was no longer trusted. There was no alternative currency in use by all
>participants. It was possible to buy items in someone's private inventory,
>but not newly manufactured items.
>A central bank can sometimes prevent a deflationary depression by creating
>fiat money. But when people lose confidence in the national currency, they
>seek an alternative means of exchange. This produces confusion: Which
>currency unit is the right one? This confusion increases the cost of doing
>business. People then must pay more for the things they want. Their real
>income falls, i.e., their range of choices falls.
>Gold coins can preserve your capital after the inflationary period is
>replaced by currency reform. But gold cannot preserve you from losses during
>a mass inflation, when supply lines break down because the nation's payments
>system has broken down. If you own gold coins to sell, you will not find
>many people on the street who recognize gold's value or who know what prices
>ought to be in gold. Coin dealers charge high commissions because
>information costs rise. There are not many coin dealers. You are better off
>with gold coins than with paper money, but like a nation with a treasury
>full of gold when a war breaks out, you will find your gold reserves
>depleted rapidly. You, like that mythical nation, must replace what you
>consume. This means that you must be productive. In a mass inflation, most
>people's productivity falls because the division of labor shrinks.
>If you spend all your gold coins during the mass inflation, you will not own
>capital after the currency reform. Gold's main function in a wise person's
>portfolio is to provide capital for reconstruction, not to provide consumer
>goods during the mass inflation. This is why people in a mass inflation are
>better off with a cache of semi-durable consumer goods, such as stored food,
>than they are with a few extra gold coins that they bought instead of food,
>when food was cheap.
>I have been speaking of mass inflation. We are not facing mass inflation in
>the near term. We are instead facing the possible collapse of a series of
>bubbles that have been created by the Federal Reserve System's on-and-off
>monetary inflation since early 2001, and by the central bank monetary
>inflation of Asian countries, which are running huge trade surpluses with
>Americans, and whose central bank officials are buying U.S. Treasury debt
>with the dollars earned by trade. This has lowered interest rates in the
>U.S., thereby producing bubbles in capital markets. What the Nasdaq
>experienced in 2000, the Dow can experience next year, and housing has now
>begun to experience in some cities, such as Las Vegas: more sellers at
>yesterday's prices than buyers...
>The economic purpose of capital markets is to provide a nexus between savers
>and borrowers for the financing of productive investment. Financial
>entrepreneurs, such as venture capitalists, traders, and speculators, are
>essential in forecasting the best uses of available savings and bearing the
>risk in an uncertain world. But a society cannot prosper by printing
>ever-increasing quantities of paper tickets representing claims for real
>goods and drawing more of the population into trading these tickets back and
>forth among themselves. We cannot all be day traders: someone must produce
>the goods that are consumed.
>Warburton calls the recent period"an excursion into the realm of financial
>fantasy." The fantasy is that central bankers have found a way to inflate
>without any negative consequences. While the effects of money supply growth
>can be confined to stocks and bonds, inflation is hidden in plain sight. The
>adjustment of relative prices between financial assets and consumption goods
>cannot be postponed indefinitely. The unwinding will not be easy or
>painless. Surely central bank follies now threaten economic disaster.

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gesamter Thread:

• Gary North Oldie - Inflationary Depression - CRASH_GURU, 10.10.2005, 19:10
  • Re: Gary North Oldie - Inflationary Depression - weissgarnix, 11.10.2005, 11:45
    • Inflationary Depression & Gold - politico, 11.10.2005, 16:06