P. Kasriel Katrina wird FED Zinserhöhungsrunde verlängern

verfasst von CRASH_GURU, 17.10.2005, 12:26

-->also höhere Inflationsraten, aber auch höherer USD?

The U.S. economy was beginning to lose some strength prior to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Absent the hurricanes, The Fed might have been inclined to pause after pushing the funds rate up to 4% on November 1 inasmuch as that the 4% level would bring the funds rate back up to its long-run average spread in relation to core consumer inflation. But, as we explained in a September 6 commentary (http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/pc090605.pdf),
the hurricanes represented negative supply-side shocks to the economy. That is, the hurricanes temporarily restrained the economy’s ability to grow as rapidly as otherwise. And then along came a “positive” demand shock - President Bush’s blank federal check to rebuild the Katrina/Rita-damaged region. Increased demand in the face of constrained supply implies higher prices. So, the core inflation rate could be on the rise in the months ahead. And that’s what could
keep the Fed on the warpath. Instead of pausing after reaching 4% on the fed funds rate, the FOMC is more likely to keep up its measured pace of 25 basis points per meeting through Greenspan’s farewell on January 31. After that, the new Fed chairperson might want to pause to assess the cumulative toll that 14 “body blows” have taken on the economy. Of course, a new Fed chairman might not have the luxury of pausing in that he or she could be under pressure to prove his or her bona fides with respect to being an inflation fighter. In addition to short-term interest rates going a little higher than we previously expected because of Katrina/Rita-related fiscal stimulus, bond yields also are likely to drift higher, perhaps taking out 4-1/2% early in
2006.

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• P. Kasriel Katrina wird FED Zinserhöhungsrunde verlängern - CRASH_GURU, 17.10.2005, 12:26
  • Und Wilma macht sich schon auf dem Weg (o.Text) - LOMITAS, 17.10.2005, 13:04
  • Re: FED Zinserhöhungsrunde verlängern? - Cosa, 17.10.2005, 16:28
    • Re: FED Zinserhöhungsrunde verlängern? - CRASH_GURU, 17.10.2005, 16:49
      • Re: FED Zinserhöhungsrunde verlängern? - Cosa, 17.10.2005, 17:12
        • Re: FED Zinserhöhungsrunde verlängern? - CRASH_GURU, 17.10.2005, 17:57