Warten auf die Lemminge - Greenspan zum US Leistungsbilanz-Defizit - lesenswert!

verfasst von Popeye, 17.11.2005, 10:45

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Alan Greenspan: Stability and economic growth - the role of the central bank

(Remarks by Mr Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, before the Banco de Mexico's 80th Anniversary International Conference, Mexico City (via videoconference), 14 November 2005.)

Hier einige Zitate:


“Of course, deficits that cumulate to ever-increasing net external debt, with its attendant rise in servicing costs, cannot persist indefinitely. At some point investors will balk at furtherfinancing. Such a development would be particularly likely should risk-adjusted rates of return on assets outside the United States rise relative to investment opportunities in the United States. Even if such returns on U.S. assets stay high, the rise of concentration risks in foreign official and private portfolios could still induce investors to slow their accumulation of dollar Claims and thereby delimit the size of the financeable U.S. current account deficit.”


“I doubt, however, whether, given the current size of global financial markets, locking togethertwo major currencies such as the dollar and the euro is feasible any longer. Over time, the required large domestic adjustments would be quite unlikely to be accepted by the majority of residents of eitherthe United States orthose of the euro area.”


“Given that we have yet to experience difficulties in funding a current account deficit that exceeds 6 percent of our GDP, what are the limits to the foreign markets' absorption of Claims on U.S. residents?”

“Irrespective of how globalized our economy may become, other things equal, people will still accord nearby Investments a Iower risk premium.”

“Of the more than $30 trillion equivalents of cross-border banking and international bond Claims reported by the private sector to the Bank for International Settlements for the end of the first quarter of 2005, 41.8 percent were in dollars and 39.8 percent were in euros. Adjusting for exchange rate changes, the dollar's share was 4 percentage points less than three years earlier, and the euro's share was more than 5 percentage points greater.6 Monetary authorities have been somewhat more inclined to hold dollar obligations. At the end of the first quarter of 2005, of the $3.8 trillion equivalents held as foreign exchange reserves, more than three-fifths were held in dollars and approximately one-quarter in euros. Since early 2002, the dollar's share has been little changed after adjusting for movements in exchange rates.”


“What could be the potential consequences should the dollar's Status as the world's reserve currency significantly diminish, especially if foreign investors reduce their rate of accumulation of Claims on U.S. residents? Most analysts would contend that U.S. interest rates were Iowered by the world's accumulation of dollars. Accordingly, in the event of a significant diminishing of the dollar's reserve currency Status, U.S. interest rates would presumably rise.”

“Although I doubt that the U.S. dollar will lose its Status as the world's reserve currency any time soon, there are, in my judgment, lessons to be learned from the experience of Sterling as it faded as the world's dominant currency.”


Quelle

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gesamter Thread:

• Warten auf die Lemminge - Greenspan zum US Leistungsbilanz-Defizit - lesenswert! - Popeye, 17.11.2005, 10:45
  • raus aus dem Dollar sagen mittlerweile schon gewisse Bankberater - BillyGoatGruff, 17.11.2005, 13:00
    • Re: raus aus dem Dollar sagen mittlerweile schon gewisse Bankberater - Popeye, 17.11.2005, 13:09
      • Re: raus aus dem Dollar sagen mittlerweile schon gewisse Bankberater - LOMITAS, 17.11.2005, 13:36
      • bin kein Greenspeak-Experte, scheint wirklich rätselhaft - BillyGoatGruff, 17.11.2005, 13:42
    • Der Euro wird mit dem Dollar gemeinsam in die Hölle fahren - politico, 17.11.2005, 14:04
  • Re: Scheint mir eher das übliche Greisen-Genuschel zu sein - dottore, 17.11.2005, 14:00
    • Was heißt schon"risk-adjusted"? - Popeye, 17.11.2005, 15:17
      • Re: Was heißt schon"risk-adjusted"? - CRASH_GURU, 17.11.2005, 16:19