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Mix-Ansicht- An black elk bzgl. crystalball-forum - Albrecht, 02.01.2001, 08:09
An black elk bzgl. crystalball-forum
Hallo black elk,
habe mir auf Deinen Rat hin mal das crystalball-Forum angesehen. Der Larry Haimsohn bringt wirklich gute Beiträge.
Auf meine Frage wie er die Goldpreisentwicklung in 2001 einschätzt, bekam ich folgende Antwort:
"I was extremely bullish on gold stocks at the very end of October 2000, right at the bottom. If you were to look at a weekly gold chart you would find a low 144
weeks back from the Oct low and also a high 56 weeks back ( 1 short of a fib 55 ). If you looked at gold stocks, or the XAU, you would find a decent weekly low
occurring every 53 to 58 weeks, going back at least 8 years from the end of Oct 2000, and that most of the rallys were playable to say the least. The smallest were
decent bear market rallys that were very profitable. I'm not a gold bug: however, I do absolutely believe that the 20 year bull market in bonds and stocks is coming
to an end very soon if not already. The long bonds will top in price in Feb, and the Dow; if it already hasn't peaked, will do so soon as all it would have left is 5th
wave that WILL crest this year and enter a decline so severe that if I gave my downside objectives people would think I'm crazy and I would probably lose
credibility. I believe that the same time these markets were having a 20 bull that gold was having a 20 year bear market, You have without a doubt picked the one
BEST investments for the long term, whether or not it may succumb to one more severe decline near term. I think it should be a definite for this site to monitor, as the
calls are extremely cheap, and will offer a monster opportunity for a long play. Currently, I think gold has a 5 wave up as does the XAU, and I will for sure be
monitoring it very close. The gold turn last year had call options go from $50 to well over $2500. A friend of mine Robert Bloch who was one of my best accounts
in 1986 and 1987 caught the move on the nose. He was an investment officer for a savings and loan, who became interested in EWT work when I nailed the the
bond low in Jan 1986 to the exact 1/32 prior to an upside explosion that I predicted, ( it happened to be a C wave decline of a large irregular flat that had a C wave
equal to exactly.618% the A wave in terms of 1/32s [ the A wave, an ABC, had had a C wave exactly equal to.618% the A wave also ]).For what it's worth, if
anyone wants to check out the bond market on a daily chart back in 1986, they will find a 31 day trading cycle ( it may have been 32 once ) that including the
fibonacci trading day counts were nailing all the turns for the entire year. I can truly say that I don't think there many; IF ANY, that traded the bond market in that
year better than I did. I mentioned some referrences in post #1972 that were in excess of a billion dollars. Robert Bloch wasn't mentioned for that reason. But he too
would be a good referrence. Whenever I wasn't retired and was wathcing the bond market, I called the bond market just as good as I did then. You would truly be
amazed at all the bond turns I called on the nose. But knowing what I have previously said about cycles and counting, if you looked at the charts from back the it
would be so obviuos it's pathetic. I apologise for tooting my horn but a prior post, post #1946, hit me the wrong way. I KNOW HOW ACCURATE CYCLES
ARE; WETHER OTHERS DO OR NOT. It doesn't require any genius. It just requires that someone is able to count. Robert Bloch later came in first place in one
of those large trading contests. He caught the crash with me on the nose in 1987. On an earlier post where I had mentioned that I had bought puts for other people in
the 1987 crash. Well, his secretary was one I bought 10 crash puts for. The $25,000 made her very happy. The reason I'm obviously mentioning all this is because
IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR in gold again. If you're there, you hit BIG. Again, I do apologise for going off, but it would really amaze you if you could
see the 42 week cycle in bonds back there and all the calls I smacked using that and fib counts.. It was easy if you believed in cycles, but you would have to just see
it. I have the daily charts from back there, so if someone is truly interested, give me an e-mail. It was frustrating to me back then trying to get accounts in the bond
business using my cycle work. I gave a seminar to the New England League of Savings and Loans in early May 1983, and told them that prices of bonds were going
down for 84 weeks ( 2 42week cycles ) from the top in late 1982. I missed that bottom by a week, and never got one customer from that seminar. I am very familiar
with the frustrations that I had in trying to get some potential accounts to pay attention to my cycle work. The ones that did are happy as a lark. It really gets me
when SOMEONE WHO DOESN'T KNOW BECAUSE OF THEIR OWN IGNORANCE criticizes others. Well, I guess I got that off my chest. FOR SURE
NUF-CED. Happy New Year To All the Decent People Out There, Larry"
ENDE seiner Antwort
Wir sollten vielleicht gemeinsam versuchen etwas mehr über seine zyklische Betrachtungsweise der Märkte zu erfahren.
Ich werde auf jeden Fall öfter dort reinschauen.
Danke fĂĽr den Tipp,
GruĂź
Albrecht
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