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Mix-Ansicht- China´s Kommunisten schiessen wieder - CRASH_GURU, 10.12.2005, 08:51
- Re: Oder gar schon 'fullfilling warnings'? - Emerald, 10.12.2005, 09:49
Re: Oder gar schon 'fullfilling warnings'?
-->Globalization - a Blessing for Mankind?
Outlook upon the coming year 2006
Almost every day we are reminded of globalization and its fast progress! By the term 'globalization', most people understand the worldwide opening of markets coupled with an unlimited exchange of goods and services between low-labour-cost countries and the industrialized nations.
In this context, our interest focuses on the present and the future effects of globalization on the individual human being. Meanwhile, whole nations depend on this rather one-sided commercial exchange. As trailblazers advocating limitless purchases of Chinese goods of any type at rock-bottom prices, the Americans have been feeling for some time the imbalance thereby created in respect of both the balance of trade and that of payments. The billions of Dollars accumulated by the Chinese are used to purchase American treasury bonds and certificates, but recently also to acquire top-level U.S. corporations or divisions thereof, which are connected with the computer field, various technologies or with oil production.
The fast changes in the framework of commerce and exchange of goods with China bring about lots of problems defying all attempts at their solution on worldwide level. For whatever reasons, these problems are either not at all communicated here, or then in a rather nontransparent manner. In contrast thereto, an increasing number of people suffer the consequences of these developments by losing their jobs, by their places of work becoming"volatile" and by their salaries being frequently reduced.
In the worldwide race for opportunities of supply to China, or alternatively to import from that country at favourable conditions, no efforts or means are spared in order to play in the forefront and to oust competitors from the market. As a last resort, huge funds have been invested during recent months in Chinese banks and insurance companies, or to acquire participations in such companies. In this area, the proven motto is valid:"First come, first served." Who comes last has to be content with leftovers!
This almost pathological mania to stake everything on one sole card could turn out to be a disastrous boomerang. For decades, the dangers connected with wheeling and dealing in the Chinese market have been quite well known. But all the same, nobody wants to keep out of this Far Eastern gold rush. On the contrary, contracts and agreements are concluded uninterruptedly like blazes, seconded by numerous bilateral treaties.
Two alarming matters stand out. Whereas in the Western industrialized nations, an outright impoverishment of increasingly large jobless segments of the population becomes very likely, numerous millions of low-cost labour are drawn to the factories, people hungry for education are crowding the universities while others get employed as office workers in Asia's giant nation China. However, should the gradually diminishing Western demand finally collapse, this will forcibly cause unsolvable problems because then the cravings of those Chinese generations now addicted to consumerism cannot be satisfied any longer.
Within the foreseeable future, there is also the danger that certain autonomous regions and/or ethnic groups might secede from the central government in Peking. This is probably an unavoidable development, but China might engage in suppressing such insurrections by military force or at least to obstruct and harass them ideologically. Under such circumstances, it is quite foreseeable that longstanding territorial claims - in close vicinity of borders or even somewhat more distant - might be enforced militarily, including an attack on Taiwan, in order to deflect attention from domestic problems.
Caused by the extremely fast pace of unchecked industrialization, the numerous Chinese ecocatastrophes of recent times involve incalculable risks. Such risks are also caused by a whole young generation's desire for a rapid democratization as a consequence of having opened the borders.
In an economic and social context, China will be of even more topical interest to us in the coming year than in the recent past. A distinct sign of overheating is revealed by the indices of Chinese markets, which are diminishing since the beginning of 2005. To be on the safe side, all investment decisions must prudently take into account the effects of globalization. At any rate, there is no doubt that, during the past twelve months, the risks in this area have substantially increased.
Zug, 15 December 2005
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