Steven Rock (Crystal-Ball-Forum) Beitrag vom 30. Januar 2003 bzgl. Prechter

verfasst von Albrecht, 27.12.2005, 20:35

-->I wish I could find a good chart for this post, but until I do, please bear with me.
I took a look at Prechter's count of London Gold and here's what I find:
If a triangle correction from the 1982 low ended on 2/2/96, then a Golden Section is formed by uniting the ATH of 1/21/80 with the triangle top and December 31st 2005. The duration of the bear would then be 25.94 years, or 1/100th of the Fibonacci number 2584 to within a little more than a month. It would also be 321 (rounded) of Carolan's moons, only 1 off a Lucas 322. FWIW, it is also almost exactly (99.6%) the square of (pi times phi) years long.
Now anyone familiar with RP's work on gold knows he has called for the bear to end"under $200/oz" and that specifically around the $180 and $112 areas present the best Fibonacci results. As an example, Prechter notes that the move down from the 1983 top of $511.50 will be.618 times the move from the ATH to the 1982 low (in percent) at $178.57, while the same relationship based on dollars moved targets $169.57.
If a trend line is drawn across the lows of 1993 and 1999, it hits a price of $180.85 on 12/31/05, giving a nice confirmation of the possible utility of the timing calculation above.
Other observations:
1. Ala Bond1, 326.10 ('93low) to 252.85 ('99 low) is 73.25 and 252.85-73.25=179.60
2. A loss of 78.6% from the 850 top yields 181.77
3. 416.25 ('96 high)-233= 183.25
4. 474 ('80 low) times.382= 181.05 (Prechter)
5. 326.10 -144 = 182.10
6. 502.75 ('87 top) - 322 (Lucas) = 180.75
7. Previous wave III top 179.50 (Prechter)
8. 296.76 ('82 low) times.618 = 183.40 (Prechter)
Shorter term:
1. The drop from the '96 high of 416.25 to the '99 low of 252.85 is 39%. A drop from the recent high of 369.90 which is 1.272 times the 39% points to 185.20
2. In dollars, the above relationship (using 1.236 instead of 1.272) points to 167.92.
3.Wave C of the 2nd ZZ =.4472 times wave C of the 1st ZZ at 180.40 IF B ended at 369.90
There's always more stuff, but bottom line is a gold price of around $180 on the last day of 2005. I'll try to work on the $112 level later.
Rock

Es wird überall nur mit Wasser gekocht...

Gruß
Albrecht

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gesamter Thread:

• Steven Rock (Crystal-Ball-Forum) Beitrag vom 30. Januar 2003 bzgl. Prechter - Albrecht, 27.12.2005, 20:35
  • Re: Steven Rock (Crystal-Ball-Forum) Beitrag vom 30. Januar 2003 bzgl. Prechter - 000, 27.12.2005, 22:43
    • Re: Steven Rock (Crystal-Ball-Forum) Beitrag vom 30. Januar 2003 bzgl. Prechter - apoll, 28.12.2005, 09:54
    • Re: Steven Rock (Crystal-Ball-Forum) Beitrag vom 30. Januar 2003 bzgl. Prechter - Albrecht, 28.12.2005, 20:03
      • Re: Gold und Elliott - ---Elli---, 29.12.2005, 15:38