Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- War das 2. Halbjahr 2005 nur ein Vorgeplänkel... - wuzge, 30.12.2005, 09:58
- Re: War das 2. Halbjahr 2005 nur ein Vorgeplänkel... - CRASH_GURU, 30.12.2005, 11:56
Re: War das 2. Halbjahr 2005 nur ein Vorgeplänkel...
-->>...gegenĂĽber der 2006er-Performance der Gold/Silber-Juniors?
>(...)
>So here we are, two years later, December 2005 and again I would make the same statement as I did in December 2002:
>Profits of 100% to more than 1000% are in the pipeline next year if invested in high quality junior exploration companies!
>The only difference this time is that this time the setup today is even more phenomenal as in December 2002, especially for those juniors in discovery stage (or at the verge of discovery).
>To put it bluntly: This setup you may never ever be witnessing in your entire life again.
>(…)
>One of those very few bullish gold experts who did see this opportunity was Jim Sinclair, he told his readers in June 2005:
>It is only six short months until 2006 is upon us. In my opinion, 2006 to 2008 will be our best years ever.
>Wait until 1/1/06 and you will find you are much too late. Things always start quietly before it becomes apparent. People trying to time the market perfectly are going to be left behind in the comet's debris trail.
>(…)
>It's therefore my strong believe that the year of 2006 will be written down in history books as one of the greatest junior festivals of all time.
>(…)
>GruĂź + Guten Rutsch
>wuzge
Bevor jetzt womöglich alle euphorisch werden, dieser Typ hat einen ziemlichen guten Track Record:
GOLD MINING SHARES CONTINUE THEIR DECEMBER SERIES OF REJECTED NEW PEAKS, WHILE THE U.S. TREASURY CURVE OFFICIALLY INVERTS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2000 (December 28, 2005): Notice that, besides frequently peaking near 10:30 a.m., gold mining shares have repeated a pattern in recent weeks in which a new all-time morning high is often followed by a violent intraday selloff. This indicates that media-inspired amateurs are the primary buyers, while knowledgeable insiders and institutions have been heavy sellers. Such"distribution" is almost always a sign of a market which is set for a sharp correction, as I expect will occur with gold mining shares over the next three to five months. On Tuesday, December 27, 2005, at 10:04:39 a.m., HUI, the Amex Goldbugs Index of Unhedged Gold Mining Shares, hit a new all-time high of 275.05, before ending the day with a net loss. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from its May 16, 2005 low of 165.71 is therefore 207.48, which will probably be reached within a few months as gold and its shares experience typical winter/early spring weakness. The big story of the day on Tuesday, by far, was the fact that the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury became greater than the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. This condition, known as an inverted yield curve, is historically one of the most reliable indicators of an upcoming recession within the next six months. Analysts will be falling all over themselves during the next several weeks explaining why"it's different this time". There are two kinds of people: those who believe that it really is different, and those who know better.
MEDIA COVERAGE TOWARD GOLD AND GOLD MINING SHARES REMAINS PERSISTENTLY AND UBIQUITOUSLY BULLISH (December 26, 2005): On Friday, December 23, 2005, HUI, the Amex Index of Unhedged Gold Mining Shares, hit a new all-time high of 272.75 at 10:37:41 a.m. EST. More and more of the mainstream media have picked up on the gold"story" in the past few weeks, with even non-financial publications such as Newsweek touting the yellow metal. When gold mining shares were rallying steadily and powerfully in the late spring and for the entire summer, they were virtually completely unnoticed: HUI surged more than 51% from its May 16 low of 165.71 to its intraday high of 250.33 on September 30, with barely a positive (or any kind of) mention all the way up. In the past few months, as HUI has struggled to gain an additional 8%-9%, this sector group has gotten easily ten or twenty times as much media adoration. Even Barron's has an article in this week's issue, on pages 12-13. The headline and slant are unquestionably bullish, although if one reads the entire text carefully--as perhaps one quarter of readers will actually do--there are some cautious words of advice about gold's near-term prospects. In addition to continuing its bearish intraday pattern of early strength, a frequent peak near 10:30 a.m., and late weakness, combined with steadiy insider selling, and near-record Market Vane bullish sentiment among traders, gold's traders' commitments have not responded positively to gold's latest price pullback. Generally, commercials will be eager buyers into all price dips, but even the decline to $490 did not attract any commercial attention. Most likely, since commercials are usually heavy buyers approaching each year's nadir, gold will decline to the $440-$450 area by the spring of 2006. HUI is likely to make a low slightly below 210.
Guten Rutsch und Alles Gute!
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
