Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist angesagt

verfasst von wuzge, 01.01.2006, 15:41

-->Hi,

das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein – Inflation pur ist angesagt:

1. M3 steigt unaufhaltsam und der Anstieg wird sich demnächst beschleunigen, da M3 ab März 2006 nicht mehr veröffentlicht wird.

2. Nach Auslaufen der jahreszeitlich bedingten Dollarstärke und weil der Zinserhöhungszyklus der US-Notenbank langsam enden dürfte, wird der Dollar in 2006 wieder in seinen langjährigen Abwärtstrend einmünden.

3. Beim geringsten Anzeichen einer sich abzeichnenden Rezession oder Systemkrise wird Helikopter-Ben die Welt in ein Dollarbad nie gekannten Ausmaßes tauchen und ggf. die Hyperinflation anfachen.

4. Der halbe Erdball - auch Teile der Hochfinanz - ist massiv short im Dollar.


Was allerdings Laien wie mich wundert, ist

a) die verblüffende Einigkeit fast aller Experten und all derer, die sich dafür halten, dass die zukünftige Entwicklung inflationär sein wird und

b) dass Langfristinvestor Warren Buffet im Spätsommer 2005 seine Aktien der Petro-China AG nach nur 3 Jahren Haltedauer schon wieder verkauft hat und kürzlich 10% seiner Dollar-short-Positionen eingedeckt hat. Auch Bill Gates hat erst vor wenigen Tagen seltsamerweise 1,75 Millionen shares seiner Pan Amercan Silver AG veräußert.

Haben Buffet und Gates, die ihre Spürnasen ganz weit vorne im Wind ausrichten, erkannt, dass dieser sich dreht? Die Mehrheit der Experten und Schreiberlinge lag sowieso noch nie richtig (außer auf der Schnauze)


In seinem Artikel vom 23.10.2005
(http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor102305.html)
erläutert Jai Taylor, dass die bail-out-Methoden der FED bald nicht mehr funktionieren könnten. Egal, ob sie die Zinsen anhebt oder senkt, das Ergebnis sei immer das gleiche: Deflation. Einkommenszuwachs durch Schuldenmachen (=Gelddrucken) gäbe es nur im K-Sommer, im K-Herbst und den ersten Tagen des K-Winters. Im eigentlichen K-Winter ginge der immer geringer werdenden Einkommenszuwachs in immer höher werdende Zinszahlungen und nicht in die Nachfrageseite der Volkswirtschaft.

Hier ein Auszug aus dem hochinteressanten Artikel Taylors:

******Note the exponential rise in total U.S. debt compared to income.[siehe Schaubild oben]

Every time more income is created, it is done so by creating a huge amount of debt, and as you can see in that chart, debt is growing much, much faster than income. So what you are suggesting when you argue that money creation can always overcome deflation, is that the amount of money that has to be taken out of the economy to pay interest and principal does not represent a drag on the demand side of the economy. I beg to differ. Also, I believe Ian Gordon is right in suggesting that during the K-winter, issuing more money actually becomes deflationary because of the exponentially rising debt levels associated with the need to accelerate money growth (and hence debt growth) to continue stimulating one new dollar of income. During the Kondratieff summer, such is not the case. During that season of the Kondratieff cycle, hyper inflation would be possible, because debt levels are a mere pittance compared to the explosion of growth that takes place during the K-autumn and during the early days of the K-winter when policy makers attempt to outrun deflation. During the K-summer, debt burdens are, by comparison to the winter, extremely low, so that new money creation is free to stimulate demand without the huge drag of debt service coverage during the K-winter. Hence we had a substantial double-digit inflationary episode in the 1970s.
But What about Exploding Inflation Now?
Now we are having rising levels of inflation. Indeed the numbers are even becoming reminiscent of those of the 1970s. (See more discussion of this below in our discussion of our Inflation/Deflation Watch and in our Model Portfolio sections below.) So, I can't deny that we are still facing an inflation problem.
Inflation threatens our currency, and so to defend the currency, the Fed is raising interest rates. However, unlike 1980, when Paul Volcker stopped the money supply growth cold in its tracks and sent interest rates to double digits, our debt levels are manifold greater now than they were then. Thus, any kind of tight money policy poses a threat of a much, much worse business and credit contraction now than during the early 1980s.

[…]

First, I believe banking interests control our government and its policies, and the bankers will not, if they can help it, have their loans repaid to them in worthless currency. In other words, the bankers are the silent power behind the throne, keeping our political system bound within certain parameters that are acceptable to them. Thus I think it is likely that the Fed will surprise all but a handful of market players by being surprisingly tight on its monetary policy once it becomes clear their status is threatened by higher inflation. And I think the data that came out this past week is reason enough to expect the Fed to start raising interest rates much more aggressively than 99% of Wall Street anticipate. In fact, I think at some point, they will slam on the brakes to demonstrate they are serious about our lack of saving and profligate spending habits. At some point, given our high level of debt, I believe it more than likely that we will spin into a deflationary implosion.

Secondly, even if I am wrong about who runs America, every infusion of new money aimed at overcoming deflationary forces will cause debt and debt servicing requirements to grow all the faster, so that at some point in time, debt-imposed deflationary forces will overwhelm the ability of debtors to pay those debts. Again, I ask you to look carefully at the debt/GDP chart above. Think about what is going on in this picture, and then ask yourself:"How can more debt money solve the deflationary problem when debt is THE problem?"

[…]

And so we wait and watch and try as best we can to determine the inflation/deflation tipping point.******


Das heißt: In jedem Fall Deflation, völlig egal, ob die FED die Zinsen anhebt oder senkt, mit der – beim gegenwärtigen imposanten US-Schuldenniveau – höchst akuten Gefahr einer deflatory implosion.


Äußerst aufschlussreich ist auch ein Artikel von M.A. Nystrem vom 31.12.2005, der erste Anzeichen einer Kreditkontraktion zu erkennen glaubt. Er rechnet darüber hinaus mit einem weiterhin festen Dollar, da immer noch viel zu viele Dollar-Bären (auch Buffet und Gates) short sind. Auch aus seinem sehr bemerkenswerten Artikel ein Auszug:

*******[…] Deflation is a bigger threat to government power and stability than inflation, and the government knows this. Seeing deflation at the doorstep [Anm: 2001 bis 2003], the government pulled out all the stops, lowering taxes, lowering interest rates, and starting a dubious war that dramatically increased government spending ($230 billion to date, according to the National Priorities Project). The Administration's shifting justifications make sense in this light - the government needed a war to massively increase government spending. Meanwhile the Fed gave us the lowest interest rates in half a century, thereby creating the housing boom. From all appearances, the government seems to have staved off deflation and turned the tide to inflation.

But not so fast.

A final common theme that I noticed in the blog comments as well as in the private emails to me was Robert Prechter bashing. It is true that Prechter has not been right on all of his predictions, but who is? As I have said many times - no one can see the future. Prechter has made some bold predictions, some of which have come to pass, others that have not, and some that may still come. As a long time subscriber to Prechter's reports, I can say that his primary flaw is not in being wrong, but simply in being early. In a world of media parrots that only repeat what they hear others saying for fear of standing out and - oh, no - perhaps being wrong, Prechter does stand out as a true independent thinker, right or wrong.

[…]

One of Prechter's beliefs is that neither the government nor the Fed can stop deflation. For the time being, it seems that deflation has been averted. Maybe the Fed and the government think they can ease off the accelerator for now. But if you have been paying attention, you too may have begun to catch the first wiffs of deflation floating on the headlines of recent economic news:

From a December 8 Wire Story:
The Federal Reserve reported Wednesday that Americans' borrowing fell by $7.2 billion at an annual rate in October, the biggest amount on record, with much of that decline reflecting a record drop of $5.6 billion, at an annual rate, in the category that includes auto loans. The declines were a drop of 4 percent in overall borrowing, the biggest setback in nearly 15 years, and a decline of 4.9 percent in the category that includes auto loans, the biggest drop in 13 years.
By apparent popular demand, the War in Iraq is winding down.

From a December 21 Reuters Story:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Wednesday narrowly passed a bill to trim nearly $40 billion from federal spending over five years, including cuts to social welfare programs such as health care for the elderly and poor. Vice President Dick Cheney, in his role as president of the Senate, broke a 50-50 tie when he voted in favor of the spending cuts.
This will have an impact on the companies that have been raking it in from war spending:

From the December 27 - NY Times:
Contractors Are Warned: Cuts Coming for Weapons In addition, there is now greater attention in Washington, both in Congress and at the Pentagon, on out-of-control spending on some weapons. The Pentagon currently has $1.3 trillion of weapons program in its portfolio - with $800 billion of the bills for them still to be paid. The Pentagon has commissioned a major study to make recommendations on curbing these runaway costs.
"Osama is happy for us to spend billions on and F-22A fighter jet systems that can do him no harm," Mr. Wheeler said."It's hard to conceive of a larger gap between [the Administration's] words and decisions."
Deflation means a stronger dollar, something no one expects. In a sense it is paradoxical that the dollar should rise considering the state of the US economy, but as I said, there are a number of complex relationships. A strong dollar is one thing that Precter predicted months ago when everyone else was doom and gloom, and it is exactly what has since transpired. As Prechter stated in the November issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist:

"The US dollar is doing great. It has now passed the halfway mark with respect to the target given in the June issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. When we recognized a bottom in 2004, the consensus of the bearishness on the dollar was the most extreme in a quarter of a century, so it was hard to get people to pay attention to this call. No one in the media wrote it up. Every article quoted dollar bears. One of the cappers to our argument was that the media were trumpeting the fact that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates had taken aggressively bearish bets on the dollar. Buffett recently covered 10 percent of his shorts after losing 92.6 million in the first three quarters of 2005. Given the unbelievable extent of bearish sentiment a year ago, we can be confident that there will be a lot more short covering before the dollar's advance is over.

So there you have it. Keep your eyes peeled, and don't count deflation out just yet.*********

Zusammenfassend kann also gesagt werden, dass schon in 2006 - für die meisten Experten völlig überraschend - der „inflation/deflation tipping point“ überschritten werden könnte mitsamt einem damit einhergehenden, weiteren Dollar-Anstieg - selbst wenn sich das heute fast niemand vorzustellen vermag.

Natürlich hoffe ich, mit diesem Ausblick völlig daneben zu liegen. Vielmehr wünsche ich mir, dass die zukünftige Entwicklung einer uns allen bekannten, sehr erfahrenen und imo zu Unrecht aus dem EW-Forum verbannten Spürnase der anderen Art, nämlich keinem geringeren als uns Euklid, recht gibt. Noch weitere 20 Jahre - so hat uns der in allen Lebenslagen Erprobte gepredigt - wird das System, das uns paradiesischen Wohlstand beschert hat, überdauern. Ein erster, winziger Schritt hierzu wäre, wenigstens in 2006 halbwegs glimpflich über die Runden zu kommen.....

Prost Neujahr!






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gesamter Thread:

• Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist angesagt - wuzge, 01.01.2006, 15:41
  • Re: Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist ange - CRASH_GURU, 01.01.2006, 18:04
    • Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist angesagt - wuzge, 01.01.2006, 19:13
      • Re: Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist angesagt - apoll, 01.01.2006, 22:20
        • Inflationieren oder sterben - wuzge, 02.01.2006, 22:27
      • Re: Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist ange - CRASH_GURU, 02.01.2006, 08:06
        • Re: Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist ange - CRASH_GURU, 02.01.2006, 08:09
        • Inflation niemals im K-Winter - wuzge, 02.01.2006, 20:04
          • Re: Inflation niemals im K-Winter - CRASH_GURU, 02.01.2006, 23:11
          • Re: Inflation niemals im K-Winter - CRASH_GURU, 02.01.2006, 23:18
            • Inflation niemals im K-Winter - wuzge, 02.01.2006, 23:53
              • Re: Inflation niemals im K-Winter - CRASH_GURU, 03.01.2006, 07:27
                • Inflation niemals im K-Winter - wuzge, 03.01.2006, 23:12
  • Re: Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist angesagt - klingonenjoerg, 02.01.2006, 02:04
    • Timingproblem - wuzge, 02.01.2006, 22:02
    • Re: Das Szenario für 2006 scheint ausgemachte Sache zu sein - Inflation ist angesagt - - Elli -, 02.01.2006, 22:11