Weil Gold so stiefmütterlich abgehandelt wird, hier etwas 'Belebendes'

verfasst von Emerald, 14.01.2006, 08:55

--> Yet another 25 year high in gold, and gold shares soared to a 9½ year high. This spectacular rise has been the longest and strongest by far and the C rise will remain underway with February gold above $525 (see Webextra). Keep in mind that while the bull market is clearly heating up, this C rise is at an extreme and the individual gold shares are too. The metals world in general is overbought under normal circumstances, but if the dollar stays sluggish or weak it will keep upward pressure on gold. Keep an eye on $525; a close below will mean the C rise is over. The XAU gold share index is quickly approaching our 150 target and it's very strong above 132. But it too is overbought (see Webextra). Silver is holding at the highs but it failed to reach a new high today.

March silver is very strong above $8.80, but a close below that level means a downward correction has begun. Gold and silver could decline to $495 and $8.20, but they would still be strong in the big picture. Copper is similar; it's strong but overbought; it could decline to $2 and still be very strong. Platinum surged to another record high today; it's very strong above $970 while palladium is strong above $250. Keep your positions but wait to buy new positions in gold, resource and silver shares. If you have Placer Dome, your bank or broker will make the conversion. You'll eventually get a buyout in cash and /or stocks. You don't have to do anything. A renewed rise in oil is underway above $60.40; oil is holding near the recent highs and it's poised to rise further. Our energy shares are strong. Continue to buy and hold our recommended energy shares.

T-Bills (90 day) keep hitting new highs, signaling that the rise in short-term interest rates will likely continue as we enter the new year. Bond prices declined this week as long-term rates also moved higher. But bond yields are still poised to decline further while bond prices rise in the weeks ahead. That'll be reinforced if the 10 and 30 year yields stay below 4.46% and 4.66%, respectively. If you have bonds, wait to sell on further strength.

The U.S. dollar remains bullish but it's still looking vulnerable to further weakness, especially if the dollar index now stays below 90.50. If the dollar index closes below 88, it'll be a strong sign of weakness but if it closes and stays below 86.60, it'll confirm that a renewed bear market decline is underway. The currencies are firm in a solid base and they're poised to rise further by staying above:.6900 New Zealand dollar, 1.19 euro,.7700 Swiss franc,.8550 yen,.7400 Aussie dollar and 1.75 British pound. The Canadian dollar remains the strongest and it's very strong above.8530. Buy and keep Canadian dollars and raise your position to 15%. Also keep 10% in New Zealand dollars, but don't buy new positions yet. If you're holding FAX, sell if it closes below 5.9.

The stock market rise since October is underway but there are signs it's faltering. The Transportations is starting to look vulnerable since reaching a record high three weeks ago. If it now stays below 4200, it's poised to decline to possibly 4000. The Industrials are having a hard time staying above 11000, but if it can now stay above 10940, it could rise to its old high at 11722. If it doesn't and stays below 11000 and closes below 10860, the rise is over. Nasdaq is now the strongest above 2270, but it's up against strong resistance. Overall, the U.S. and world markets may be nearing the end of a good rise.

Please note that next week we will not have a weekly update since we'll be on an investment cruise. But we'll be back on schedule Wednesday, January 25. The numbers listed above are valid until then. Warm wishes, Pamela and Mary Anne

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gesamter Thread:

• Weil Gold so stiefmütterlich abgehandelt wird, hier etwas 'Belebendes' - Emerald, 14.01.2006, 08:55
  • Re: I strongly warn all my members to stay away from GOLD.... - - Elli -, 14.01.2006, 16:17
    • Re: Da liegen bisher nicht nur 2 daneben:-)))) - André, 14.01.2006, 16:49
      • Re: Das 'bisher' entscheidet sich erst in den kommenden Wochen (o.Text) - - Elli -, 14.01.2006, 18:01
    • Re: Kleine Wette gefällig, dass Gold nicht fällt? - R.Deutsch, 14.01.2006, 18:10
      • Re: Kleine Wette gefällig, dass Gold nicht fällt? - - Elli -, 14.01.2006, 19:23
        • Re: Kleine Wette gefällig, dass Gold nicht fällt? - R.Deutsch, 14.01.2006, 19:53
          • Re: Reinhard - - Elli -, 15.01.2006, 16:09
      • Re: Kleine Wette gefällig, dass Gold nicht fällt? - CRASH_GURU, 15.01.2006, 09:16
        • Re: Kleine Wette gefällig, dass Gold nicht fällt? - R.Deutsch, 15.01.2006, 10:01
    • Re: I strongly warn all my members to stay away from GOLD.... - apoll, 16.01.2006, 14:54