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Mix-Ansicht- OT: Marc Faber: Investment Themes 2006 - alberich, 15.01.2006, 15:32
OT: Marc Faber: Investment Themes 2006
-->Therefore, on the slightest hint of even
easier monetary policies than we already had, the first asset class to decline
would be the US dollar. Last week, a renewed trend toward a lower dollar
seems to have begun and my first recommendation for 2006 would be to
short the US dollars. But short US dollars against what???
Based on current account surpluses and deficits, I suppose that, in 2006,
the currencies of Asian countries, which have large current account
surpluses, could increase in value against the US dollar and the Euro. In
particular, I like, now, the Japanese Yen and the Singapore dollar.
...
Moreover, I doubt that in a weak US dollar environment, US long-term
interest will decline further. So, while the first reaction to weaker economic
growth in 2006 could be some strengthening of bond prices (declining
interest rates), in a second instance bond prices are likely to tumble along
with the US dollar. Therefore, I would use any strength in bond prices as
a selling opportunity
...
A major investment theme after the breakdown of the NASDAQ, which
began in March 2000, has been to invest in small-cap and mid-cap stocks.
As a result, large market capitalization stocks around the world have been
miserable performers compared to small cap stocks. However, I believe the
time has come when investors should switch back into large market
capitalization stocks simply because they have become relatively
inexpensive (see figure 3). So, another investment theme would be to
emphasize high quality large market capitalization stocks in one’s
portfolio.
...
So, for investors who want to have an exposure to the US, I would
recommend to buy a basket of US pharmaceutical companies.
...
The last investment theme, I would like to discuss, are Taiwanese shares.
From figure 6, we can see that a) Taiwanese shares have grossly underperformed
Asian shares since 1998; and b) that the dividend yield on stocks
is now about twice as high as the yield on Taiwanese government bonds.
Lastly, the Taiwan Stock Exchange Index, which hovers around 6,500 is
down from over 12,000 in 1990! Just, as a side, if the Dow Jones Industrial
Average were to decline to half its 1990 level it would trade at just 1,200!!
shortterm:
All asset markets (except for the US dollar and US
bonds) have been very strong in the first ten days of January and I expect a
correction to unfold in the second half of January, which will last at the very
least into February.
<ul> ~ http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/</ul>
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