Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- ? Kommt mir irgendwie bekannt vor! - Emerald, 26.01.2006, 14:31
- Re:? Kommt mir irgendwie bekannt vor! - Hasso, 26.01.2006, 16:51
Re:? Kommt mir irgendwie bekannt vor!
-->Hallo Emerald,
aber Dein vor ein paar Tagen prognostizierter"Scheitelpunkt" beim Gold ist auch nicht eingetroffen! Ich warte sehnsüchtig auf diesen kräftigen Einbruch beim Gold, um bei meinen Puts Kasse zu machen, aber er kommt und kommt nicht......
Vermutlich ist der Trend nach oben viel stabiler als sich die Kommentatoren vorstellen können.
Hasso
>Still 20% to 40% upside with 600 gold and almost a double with 750 gold price!!
><<GOLD012506.pdf>>
>Good day ladies and gentlemen,
>Being not all that far from $600 on gold, we have issued some sensitivity analysis on our coverage universe at US$600 gold and also at US$750 gold.
>We are still calling for some weakness sometimes in Q1, as the physical demand is seasonally weaker, but now with the Iran issue building up and more indications of central bank buying, maybe we will slip only to the 530 level before rising again.
>Expecting peaks at the 600 level later this year.
>Our targets (who cares about targets!) are still calculated using 515 gold, but using 600 is showing on average, upside of 20$% to 40%, with a wide range of 10% to 60%.
>Fair value calculated using 750 Gold is showing 80% to 100% upside! This is a 2 for 1 (at least!) leverage in favor of the stocks vs. the commodity.
>South African names tend to show the most leverage, because of their high cost, thanks to the strong Rand over the past couple of years.
>FSU names show the least upside (Peter Hambro, Oxus), the models giving benefit only to curent production, cash flow, and on these names the market is already paying more for blue sky exploration, etc..
>Names with the most upside: Harmony Gold, Kinross, Gold Fields, Cambior (still don't like it), Centerra and Gabriel.
>Names with the least upside / below average leverage: Newcrest, Oxiana, Meridian, Peter Hambro and Oxus. Companies with good base metals content are of course penalized when calculating an NAV with higher gold price (higher gold only)
>RBC Capital Markets - Lausanne
>
>PS: Zurück aus Südafrika muss ich mich an solche News erst einmal gewöhnen!
Thread gesperrtgesamter Thread:
