Re: geht in Island nicht gerade alles zu Boden?

verfasst von Emerald, 06.04.2006, 15:38

-->Lieber Tobby, wenn Du fragen kommst, dann ist vermutlich der ISK-Kurs - Verfall ausgestanden.

Die Währung hat gegenüber Jahres-Beginn in der Tag 18 % verloren!
Es stand alles schon in der Zeitung und in den Medien. Am meisten hat
es die Obligationen - Besitzer getroffen, welche erst seit 6 - 9 Monaten
dabei sind:

a) Zinsanstieg bis zuletzt 11,50 % hat Bonds durchgeschüttelt.

b) der ISK ist im März 2006 wegen dem Downrating durch Fitch in die Bedrouille
geraten.

und jetzt die Aussichten:

a) alle Banken, mit Ausnahme der Danske Bank, sind positiv für Island und die
Banken, sowie das Rating.

b) Moody's und S&P bleiben beim A-Rating für den Kleinstaat.

c) Island emittiert keine neue Bonds, weil der Markt höhere Zinsen verlangt, als das Land zugestehen will.

d) die isländ. Treasury verfügt über Liquiditäten welche für drei Jahre aus-reichen und Bondemissionen zurückstellen lässt.

e) Das Carry Trade - Geplänkel, ausgelöst in Tokyo am 9. März 2006, war
für die Devisen-Broker ein gefundenes Fressen. Zittrige Hände haben millionenweise Positionen aufgelöst und für Gross-Gewinne besorgt. Ich höre, dass diese schon wieder munter weiter gehen, und viel heisses Geld in die hoch-verzinslichen Währungen strömt!

f) Pimco's Gross würde gerne isl. Bonds kaufen, kann aber leider nicht, weil
die Markt-Kapitalisierung zu klein ist.

und hier eine Gesamt-Analyse in Englisch von gestern:

(Adds comments from head of debt office on size of market
from 18th paragraph)

By Tasneem Brogger
April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland, which rejected all bids at
its last two treasury note auctions, plans to survey securities
firms before attempting to issue debt again.
``We'll play it safe at the next auction,'' Thordur Geir
Jonasson, the head of the debt office, said in an interview in
London today. ``We may need to be more flexible,'' talking to
primary dealers to check on demand and making sure sales don't
coincide with any negative reports on the economy.
Iceland rejected the bids at two auctions in February and
March after investors demanded higher yields on concern about
spiraling bank industry debt, a ballooning current-account deficit
and gross external debt three times the size of the economy. The
krona tumbled this year after Fitch Ratings cut its economic
outlook and Danske Bank A/S said it was headed toward recession.
Iceland on March 22 rejected all bids at an auction for 7
percent notes due 2010 saying the 8.52 percent yield demanded by
investors was too high. The notes were trading at 9.41 percent
today.
The March 22 auction took place one day after Danske Bank
published its report.

Terrible Timing

``It has been terrible timing,'' Jonasson said. ``We have
been very unlucky with our timing. We may have to become more
flexible so that we're not limited to pre-announced calendar
dates.''
The next scheduled sale of treasury notes is on April 19.
Jonasson didn't say if that may be changed.
The Reykjavik-based Sedlabanki, the country's central bank,
on March 30 raised the benchmark interest rate by three quarters
of a point to 11.5 percent to slow inflation fueled by a 13
percent drop in the krona this year. The bank said then its
chances of reaching its target of 2.5 percent in the next two
years are ``almost zero.''
Inflation in the Atlantic island of 300,000 people quickened
to 4.5 percent in March, exceeding the target for a 23rd month.
Ross Porter, who manages the Oslo-based Skagen Avkastning
fund, said on March 30 that he raised holdings in Icelandic bonds
by 50 percent in the week leading up to Sedlabanki's last rate
decision. He backed his decision, saying the ``interest rate
differential is so attractive now.''

Debt Market

Many other investors aren't so keen. Low volumes mean pricing
in the island's government debt market isn't efficient, making
government notes difficult to compare with other sovereign
benchmark series and keeping foreign investors at bay, Jonasson
said. This has kept major foreign bond investors such as Pacific
Investment Management outside the market, he said.
Outstanding government debt stood at 197 billion kronur
($2.72 billion) in March, the debt office said, or 19 percent of
the country's gross domestic product.
The lack of demand for treasury notes does not mean the
economy is heading for a crisis, Jonasson said. The decline in the
krona this year was ``absolutely necessary,'' because it was
overvalued.
Investor speculation pushed down the krona after Fitch
Ratings on Feb. 21 cut its outlook for Iceland's credit rating to
``negative'' from ``stable'' citing the current account deficit,
bank indebtedness and the overheating economy, which grew 8.2
percent in 2004 and 5.5 percent last year.
Iceland had a current account deficit of 16.5 percent of
gross domestic product in 2005. It also had a negative
international investment position, or assets held outside the
island minus overseas liabilities, of 829 billion kronur ($11.6
billion), or 86 percent of GDP, the central bank said on March 7.

Vulnerable

``We are quite vulnerable to a shift in sentiment and the
market can get very sentimental,'' Jonasson said.
Still, taking on debt is a natural way for Iceland's economy
to grow, he said. ``This is how very small, open economies grow.
When you have the opportunity to draw on foreign investment, you
take advantage of it.''
One of Jonasson's biggest problems as head of the debt office
is finding debt to sell. The government had a budget surplus of
3.8 percent of gross domestic product last year and expects a 1.4
percent surplus this year, according to the Finance Ministry's Web
site. Government coffers have been boosted by sales of state
assets including Iceland Telecom last year.
``The government is pre-funded for the next three years,''
Jonasson said. ``It's a problem being the head of the debt office
when you have nothing to sell.''

Inefficient Pricing

Low volumes mean pricing in the island's government debt
market isn't efficient, making government notes difficult to
compare with other sovereign benchmark series and keeping foreign
investors at bay, Jonasson said. This has kept major foreign bond
investors such as Pacific Investment Management outside the
market, Jonasson said.
``We asked Pimco a few times why they weren't interested in
Iceland and they said we're far too small and not in any
indexes,'' he said. ``They said it's impossible to track us
against benchmarks.''
Getting Icelandic government bonds into a benchmark index
remains problematic, given the market's small size, Jonasson said.
``We have really been pushing to get our bonds in some kind
of benchmark index for quite a while,'' he said. ``But even if we
were included, we'd probably only make up about 0.1 percent of
that index.''
Outstanding government debt stood at 197 billion kronur
($2.72 billion) in March, the debt office said, or 19 percent of
the country's gross domestic product.

have a wonderful day!

Gruss.
Emerald.

Thread gesperrt

 

gesamter Thread:

• @Emerald - geht in Island nicht gerade alles Baden? - Toby0909, 06.04.2006, 08:46
  • Re: @Emerald - geht in Island nicht gerade alles Baden?..........ja aber!!! - certina, 06.04.2006, 11:21
    • ja aber aber aber - übrigens ein paar technisch interessante Ereignisse - Toby0909, 06.04.2006, 11:50
  • Re: geht in Island nicht gerade alles zu Boden? - Emerald, 06.04.2006, 15:38
    • Da das r in Bredouille öfter zu weit hinten sitzt - Heller, 06.04.2006, 16:26