Comeback der 'decision-making computer'?

verfasst von dottore, 19.07.2006, 13:29

-->Hi,

nach dem LTCM-Debakel war es etwas stiller geworden um den Einsatz von Computern als"Entscheidern".

Jetzt hat der holländische Professor Chris Snijders eine (neue) Formel entwickelt, die dem Management generell (!) seine Entscheidungsprozesse abnehmen soll.

Dazu aus der NYT einige Auszüge:

Maybe We Should Leave That Up to the Computer

Do you think your high-paid managers really know best? A Dutch sociology professor has doubts.

The professor, Chris Snijders of the Eindhoven University of Technology, has been studying the routine decisions that managers make, and is convinced that computer models, by and large, can do a better job of it. He even issued a challenge late last year to any company willing to pit its humans against his algorithms.

"As long as you have some history and some quantifiable data from past experiences," Mr. Snijders claims, a simple formula will soon outperform a professional’s decision-making skills."It’s not just pie in the sky," he said."I have the data to support this."

Some of Mr. Snijders’s experiments from the last two years have looked at the results that purchasing managers at more than 300 organizations got when they placed orders for computer equipment and software. Computer models given the same tasks achieved better results in categories like timeliness of delivery, adherence to the budget and accuracy of specifications.

A Dutch insurer, Interpolis, whose legal aid department has been expanding rapidly in recent years, called in Mr. Snijders to evaluate a computer model it had designed to automate the routing of new cases — a job previously handled manually by the department’s in-house legal staff.

The manager in charge of the project, Ludo Smulders, said the model was much faster and more accurate than the old system.

[...]

Mr. Snijders’s work builds on something researchers have known for decades: that mathematical models generally make more accurate predictions than humans do...

Computer-based decision-making has also grown increasingly popular in credit scoring, the insurance industry and some corners of Wall Street.

The main reason for computers’ edge is their consistency — or rather humans’ inconsistency — in applying their knowledge.

"People have a misplaced faith in the power of judgment and expertise," said Greg Forsythe, a senior vice president at Schwab Equity Ratings, which uses computer models to evaluate stocks.

The algorithms behind so-called quant funds, he said, act with"much greater depth of data than the human mind can. They can encapsulate experience that managers may not have." And critically, models don’t get emotional.

"Unemotional is very important in the financial world," he said."When money is involved, people get emotional."

[Wie wahr!]

Many putative managerial qualities, like experience and intuition, may in fact be largely illusory. In Mr. Snijders’s experiments, for example, not only do the machines generally do better than the managers, but some managers perform worse over time, as they develop bad habits that go uncorrected from lack of feedback.

[Rest behandelt sonstige Anwendungsmöglichkeiten, wie Einstellungs-Interviews, Gewaltausbruchs-Vorhersagen, die üblichen Management-Entscheidungen, u.ä.]

Gegenmeinung hier, bezogen auf LTCM:

"As long as the underlying conditions were in order, the computer model was almost like a money machine," said Roger A. Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado.

"But when the assumptions that went into the creation of those models were violated, it led to a huge loss of money, and the potential collapse of the global financial system."

Weiteres Problem: Der Computer ist nicht zur Verantwortung zu ziehen.

Einer von Schwab:

"If I’m making decisions, I don’t want to give up control and say, ‘Sorry, the model told me.’ The client wants to know that somebody is behind the wheel."

Mark E. Nissen, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., who has been studying computer-vs.-human procurement, sees a fundamental shift under way, with humans becoming increasingly peripheral in making routine decisions, concentrating instead on designing ever-better models:

"The newest space, and the one that’s most exciting, is where machines are actually in charge, but they have enough awareness to seek out people to help them when they get stuck," he said — for example, when making "particularly complex, novel, or risky" decisions.

Snijders schließlich:"I’ve now worked with these models for so long, that my instincts have changed along the way."

Spannend also. Eines (nahen?) Tages werden alle"Großen" nach der"Superformel" arbeiten, die kaum geheim bleiben wird, und dann... KLOPF, PENG, TILT.

Gruß!

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gesamter Thread:

• Comeback der 'decision-making computer'? - dottore, 19.07.2006, 13:29
  • Re: decision-making VS. game theory - Holmes, 19.07.2006, 13:46
    • Re: decision-making VS. game theory - Burning_Heart, 19.07.2006, 17:34
  • Das Programm hat versagt... - Zandow, 19.07.2006, 19:31
    • Re: Das Programm hat versagt... - Burning_Heart, 19.07.2006, 22:11