Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Es ist August und der Herbst steht vor der Tür. Meteorologisch und goldig! - Emerald, 03.08.2006, 12:25
Es ist August und der Herbst steht vor der Tür. Meteorologisch und goldig!
-->a) the market is miss-trusting the gold price, with an expectation that the price will fall, probably on the back of a resolution in the Middle East (I think that the gold market completely ignored the Middle East conflict from day one) - even the South African corporates are hesitant to talk about the sustainability of R110,000/kg - despite a gold price of R145,000/kg on my screen,
b) the companies in general have failed to deliver the kind of profitability that investors could have expected with gold prices at these levels - due to rising costs, production difficulties, etc,
c) lack of apparent longer term growth has led to investors questioning why they should pay a premium for a gold stock and not for a base metal or PGM company - in fact, the PGM producers are now trading on higher multiples than the gold shares - wow!!
The last two points are difficult to defend and may take time to correct, while the first point may be the catalyst to drive the shares considerably higher if we get our usual August/September gold price rally. Remember that Lonmin went from £9/sh to £32/sh over 18 months, starting in Feb last year.
Two charts worth worth a closer look...
The first shows P/NAV multiples for our global universe of Tier 1 and 2 producers, which have fallen to around 1.2X currently, versus a historical range closer to 2-2.5X. We can't remember the last time you could buy gold stocks this close to valuation - even Newmont's Pierre Lassonde is flabbergasted and was recently quoted,"Newmont shares are now trading below NAV - the first time I have seen this during my association with the company". Yet, as Merrill's gold investment guru Graham Birch wrote recently, corporate earnings are up on the gold price and moderating cost increases. What gives?
Secondly, we show the average monthly returns of gold and the TSX gold index since 1980. Historically, gold rallies strongly in August and September, taking gold equities along for the ride. Will 2006 be a repeat? Well, our bullion desk reports good physical demand reappearing after 6-8 months of destocking, evidence of new Central bank purchases, and ongoing investment buying of this"safe haven asset". We believe in a gold bounce here and, as we wrote back in May, see the potential for gold to rise to $800 by year-end.
Gold entering seasonal strength and the equities look cheap? Makes us want to buy gold stocks. In Australia, we like Perseverance and Lihir, while our best international picks are AngloGold Ashanti, Eldorado, IAMGOLD, Centerra, Harmony and Newmont.
Quelle: RBC-Dominion, Toronto/Montreal.
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