Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Die Idee hat einen gewissen Charme - XERXES, 07.08.2006, 12:53
- Re: Die Idee hat einen gewissen Charme - zureich, 08.08.2006, 02:45
- Re: Der Aggressor hat sich verrechnet - ist Atom schon eingerechnet? - Emerald, 08.08.2006, 04:52
- Re: Der Aggressor hat sich verrechnet - ist Atom schon eingerechnet? - weissgarnix, 08.08.2006, 10:03
Re: Der Aggressor hat sich verrechnet - ist Atom schon eingerechnet?
-->Wer in diesem Drama der wahre Aggressor ist, bleibt leider nach wie vor reichlich nebulös, auch wenn man ihn vordergründig längst ausgemacht zu haben glaubt. Die Israelis führen jedenfalls mittlerweile nicht mehr den Krieg, den sie vor 2 Wochen - zumindest nach damaliger Mediendarstellung - angefangen haben, soviel ist sicher.
Die Befürchtung, die man aber zurecht haben kann, ist die, dass Olmert und Konsorten die Geltung eines sattsam bekannten, deutschen Bonmots (vermutlich sogar jiddischer Herkunft) für sich beanspruchen, welches da lautet:"ist der Ruf erst ruiniert, lebt's sich gänzlich ungeniert". Eventuell darin bestärkt durch die Einflüsterungen diverser neokonservativer Hardliner in den USA.
In diesem Sinne: wenn auf der ganzen Welt eh schon alle über Israel herfallen, der Libanon ohnehin schon in Trümmern liegt, und man halt schon mal kurz vor der syrischen Grenze steht... warum nicht gleich über den Rubicon gehen und Syrien als auch den Iran zum Endgame herausfordern? Eine"Smoking Gun" ließe sich vermutlich leicht finden (hat nicht Ahmadinedschad indirekt bestätigt, dass Iran Raketen an die Hisbollah lieferte?), also warum nicht gleich tabula rasa machen?
Vermutlich hegt das israelische Militär solche Pläne aus einem ganz simplen Grund: die asymmetrische Auseinandersetzung mit der Hisbollah, in der die IDF nicht so richtig gut aufgestellt wirkt, wäre mit einem Schlag"symmetrisch". Soll heissen: man hätte jetzt einen richtig schönen"klassischen" Krieg, wie ihn die IDF-Oberen sicher in Westpoint und sonstwo"lernen" durften, und wie er ganz offensichtlich auch jahrzehntelang hauptsächlicher Gegenstand ihrer"war games" gewesen ist. Mit allen Ingredienzien wie feindliche Armeen, taktische Ziele, usw. und vor allem relativ klar definierten"exit strategies", (i.e. formale oder faktische Kapitulation des Feindes, wenn seine Infrastruktur erst mal völlig zerdeppert ist, oder seine Bevölkerung rebelliert, weil sie die Schnauze voll hat).
Dass die Nukes aus der Garage geholt werden, halte sich selbst für diesen Fall extrem unwahrscheinlich, aber gut, die Skala an Eskalationsstufen ist natürlich nach oben offen...
>Missiles neutralizing Israeli tanks
>By BENJAMIN HARVEY
>ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
>
> An Israeli soldier walks on a tank at a staging area in a quarry in northern Israel, near the Lebanese border, Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2006. In a major expansion of its ground offensive, Israel decided to send thousands more troops deeper into Lebanon, as far as the Litani River some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Israeli border, to clear out Hezbollah fighters and hold the territory until a multinational force is deployed there, senior officials said Tuesday. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)
>JERUSALEM -- Hezbollah's sophisticated anti-tank missiles are perhaps the guerrilla group's deadliest weapon in Lebanon fighting, with their ability to pierce Israel's most advanced tanks.
>Experts say this is further evidence that Israel is facing a well-equipped army in this war, not a ragtag militia.
>Hezbollah has fired Russian-made Metis-M anti-tank missiles and owns European-made Milan missiles, the army confirmed on Friday.
>In the last two days alone, these missiles have killed seven soldiers and damaged three Israeli-made Merkava tanks - mountains of steel that are vaunted as symbols of Israel's military might, the army said. Israeli media say most of the 44 soldiers killed in four weeks of fighting were hit by anti-tank missiles.
>"They (Hezbollah guerrillas) have some of the most advanced anti-tank missiles in the world," said Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior military intelligence officer who retired earlier this summer.
>"This is not a militia, it's an infantry brigade with all the support units," Kuperwasser said.
>Israel contends that Hezbollah gets almost all of its weaponry from Syria and by extension Iran, including its anti-tank missiles.
>That's why cutting off the supply chain is essential - and why fighting Hezbollah after it has spent six years building up its arsenal is proving so painful to Israel, officials say.
>Israel's Merkava tanks boast massive amounts of armor and lumber and resemble fortresses on tracks. They are built for crew survival, according to Globalsecurity.org, a Washington-based military think tank.
>Hezbollah celebrates when it destroys one.
>"A Zionist armored force tried to advance toward the village of Chihine. The holy warriors confronted it and destroyed two Merkava tanks," the group proclaimed on television Thursday.
>The Israeli army confirmed two attacks on Merkava tanks that day - one that killed three soldiers and the other killing one. The three soldiers who were killed on Friday were also killed by anti-tank missiles, the army said.
>It would not say whether the missiles disabled the tanks.
>"To the best of my understanding, they (Hezbollah) are as well-equipped as any standing unit in the Syrian or Iranian armies," said Eran Lerman, a retired army colonel and now director of the Israel/Middle East office of the American Jewish Committee."This is not a rat-pack guerrilla, this is an organized militia."
>Besides the anti-tank missiles, Hezbollah is also known to have a powerful rocket-propelled grenade known as the RPG29. These weapons are also smuggled through Syria, an Israeli security official said, and were previously used by Palestinian militants in Gaza to damage tanks.
>On Friday, Jane's Defense Weekly, a defense industry magazine, reported that Hezbollah asked Iran for"a constant supply of weapons" to support its operations against Israel.
>The report cited Western diplomatic sources as saying that Iranian authorities promised Hezbollah a steady supply of weapons"for the next stage of the confrontation."
>Top Israeli intelligence officials say they have seen Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers on the ground with Hezbollah troops. They say that permission to fire Hezbollah's longer-range missiles, such as those could reach Tel Aviv, would likely require Iranian go-ahead.
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