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Mix-Ansicht- Global slump next year? Pimco's Strategie. EW für Bondmärkte sinnvoll? - dottore, 17.08.2006, 10:32
- Gegenfrage: Wie sinnvoll ist der Erwerb von TBonds, wenn slumpbedingt... - Ecki1, 17.08.2006, 11:06
- Re: EW für Bondmärkte sinnvoll? - dottore - ---Elli---, 17.08.2006, 13:15
Global slump next year? Pimco's Strategie. EW für Bondmärkte sinnvoll?
-->Hi,
aus dem DT:
The world's largest bond fund has raised its bet on a global slump next year, increasing its holdings in US Treasury bonds and government agency debt for the second month running.
The move by Pimco's $93bn (£50bn) Total Return fund came as a raft of data from the US government and Opec pointed to a rapid slowdown in the American economy.
Scott Mather, head of portfolio management at Pimco's European arm, said:
"The US is leading the world economy to a lower level and possibly into recession. That's not our base case but we think the odds are now greater than 30pc."
US Treasuries rose for a second day yesterday, pushing the benchmark 10-year bond's yield to its lowest since April, after reports showed slowing inflation and more cracks in the American housing market. The gloomy economic figures add weight to the growing conviction that the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates on hold last week marked the end of a two-year tightening cycle.
Fixed-interest investments such as government bonds increase in value as yields fall so Pimco's increased exposure to US Treasuries will pay off if interest rates fall back from the 5.25pc they reached after 17 consecutive increases.
Mather said:"Normally it takes six months for the Fed to reverse policy after it stops. Nothing's different this time."
Consumer prices in the US rose at the slowest pace in five months in July, government figures confirmed yesterday. Prices excluding volatile food and fuel costs rose 0.2pc, down from 0.3pc in June. The slower rate of price rises followed the release of data this week showing a drop in the prices paid to US producers.
[...]
Pimco, which has more than $600bn under management, is a leading fixed-income investor. Its managing director, Bill Gross, said recently that the Fed's interest rate pause was likely to trigger a bull market in bonds after three years in which equities have outperformed.
Earlier this week a survey of fund managers by Merrill Lynch showed that almost half the institutional investors questioned believe stock markets will be lower in six months' time than today. A clutch of technical analysts also turned bearish on equities this week, predicting a fall of up to 20pc in the main American indices, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
HSBC yesterday added its voice to the bond bulls. Richard Cookson, a strategist, said:"We think that that is it for this cycle of rate hikes. While bonds do well when the Fed is cutting, they do even better from the end of the hiking cycle."
Soweit, so gut. Frage an @Elli und die anderen EW-Cracks:
Sind Wellen-Analysen für die Bondmärkte verfügbar (falls sie überhaupt sinnvoll sind)?
Dank + Gruß!
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