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Mix-Ansicht- Der schwache Rand 'zündet' die Z.A.-Minen-Werte! - Emerald, 07.09.2006, 07:50
- Re: Der schwache Rand: Einschätzung der RBC Toronto: - Emerald, 07.09.2006, 08:26
- Re: Der schwache Rand 'zündet' die Z.A.-Minen-Werte! Fehlzuendungen? - certina, 07.09.2006, 19:37
- Re: Der schwache Rand 'zündet' die Z.A.-Minen-Werte! - - Elli -, 12.09.2006, 12:23
Re: Der schwache Rand: Einschätzung der RBC Toronto:
-->RBC revises USD/ZAR forecasts up as inflation expectations soar
· ZAR is the worst performing currency against the USD year-to-date, down 13%, and RBC highlights the risk of further heavy ZAR selling.
1 Current fundamentals have turned more bearish for ZAR than previously anticipated. Specifically soaring inflation expectations, portfolio outflows, the narrowing SA-US real rate differential and the further collapse in the gold-ZAR relationship, in the last two months.
2 Having said this, we expect the SARB to act sufficiently in hiking rates to curb inflation expectations and reverse the ZAR’s fortunes by year-end.
· FX Implications: On September 5 we significantly revised up our USD/ZAR forecast to 7.35 for end-Q3 from 6.65 but we retain a moderately bearish year-end forecast of 6.85 (revised up from 6.50). We highlight the near term risk is for a move up to 8.00.
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