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Mix-Ansicht- 1 und 2 gleich 4: Nicht viel über Gold, dafür mehr vom Silber................. - Emerald, 19.09.2006, 07:54
1 und 2 gleich 4: Nicht viel über Gold, dafür mehr vom Silber.................
-->Gold and Silver Plunge: On Monday, September 11, both Gold and Silver gapped down below the critical 600 and 1200 support levels respectively, thus casting doubt upon our previous bias that the lows of June 13-14 represented the long-term cycle troughs. They still might, especially in Silver, but until they rally back to fill those gaps, the pressure has now switched above the market, thus pressing prices down.
On Friday, December Gold fell to 576.60, which is virtually a double bottom to the 576 low of June 14 in the same contract, but considerably above the 545 low of the nearby contract that was in effect at that time. If December Gold penetrates beneath 576, but remains above 545 - or if Silver remains above 979 in the December contract - we will have a case of intermarket bullish divergence. If that happens this week, we could also have a case of a contracted (distorted) primary cycle low in Gold. This week represents the 14th week of the primary cycle, whose periodicity is usually 15-21 weeks. A 14-week low would be contraction, and such distortion is usually followed by powerful rallies. But if Gold continues lower next week, it will be a “normal” primary cycle, and the price objective would be 506 +/- 29.20. Until prices fill the gap down at 613.50, there is a measuring gap target down to 535.50 +/- 17.50. Aggressive traders could look to buy now, in the possibility that this will be a contracted primary cycle, and a double bottom to the June lows, or even intermarket bullish divergence to the June lows so long as Silver holds above 979. But more conservative traders should wait until Gold closes the gap down at 613.50 before adopting bullish strategies, or even a bearish “island reversal down that formed on September 7 at 641.
While Gold failed to make a new high on its rally into September 5, just before the break, December Silver did make a new high for the primary cycle that day at 1337. Two days later it began gapping down for three consecutive days, leading to a low of 1055 by Friday, September 15 (loss of 21% in just 6 trading days). As with Gold, this begins the 14th week of the 13-21 week primary cycle. There is no distortion here since Silver’s normal cycle is slightly shorter than Gold’s, and we are now in the time band when that primary cycle trough is due. This primary cycle has exhibited a bullish ‘right translation” pattern, where the crest was past the midway point of the cycle (September 5 was the 12th week). Thus there is reason to believe the 979 low that started the cycle on June 14 will hold, even though Gold’s may break (Gold’s primary cycle crest occurred July 17, in the 5th week, so its pattern was a “left translation” type, which is more bearish). The “gap down” below 1200 on Monday, September 11, gives Silver a measuring gap target down to 1070 +/- 32, and we are there now, and this is within the current critical reversal period of Venus (September 15-19). But in the event that 979 is broke, then we have to look for 796 +/- 86. My bias remains that the 945-979 area of the December and nearby contract lows in June will hold, and therefore traders are advised to look for buying opportunities. But first, read the next paragraph closely.
(aus dem Abo. MMACycles)
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