Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Hurra, die Volatilität ist zurück! Böse Bärenfalle, das! Oder?? - Stagflati, 27.11.2006, 18:47
- ich investiere nur noch...Re: Hurra, die Volatilität ist zurück!... - weissgarnix, 27.11.2006, 18:59
- Re: Hurra, die Volatilität ist zurück! Böse Bärenfalle, das! Oder?? - klingonenjoerg, 27.11.2006, 21:16
- Wie..?..Wo..., was ist zurück, die Vola? - x Thomas, 27.11.2006, 21:43
- Time For Extreme Caution - SilVisconti, 28.11.2006, 12:50
Time For Extreme Caution
-->>Dax heute minus 1,8%, T-Dax minus 2,3%, Nasdaq gerade minus 1,6%, Dow minus 1,0%. Na also, die Vola ist zur�ck. Aber, liebe B�ren und und sonstige Crashies: Vorsicht. Das ist eine ganz gemeine B�renfalle! Deshalb hei�t es:"Strong buy"
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Yield possibilities are too low, and risk is high. Bond prices are high, stock prices are high. Hedge funds are wandering dark stars waiting to cause a financial panic with their leverage. Not to mention the derivatives death star. At about $1000 trillion, (BIS figures are as high as $600 trillion and I figure that number needs to be doubled) that is just going to go out of control by itself, it is not controllable, growing at 30 to 50% a year.
Consider markets at 100 to 1 leverage
It is no secret that great leverage is infused in all financial markets, stocks, bonds, and even non PM commodities. Just go take a look at Doug Noland’s incomparable Credit Bubble Bulletin at PrudentBear.com (no relation to Prudent Squirrel). In it, you will find a vast array of weekly credit statistics, and the clear conclusion that leverage is now at pathological levels in markets.
I have told subscribers to consider all financial markets at about 100 to 1 leverage. The reason is that, at the margins, where stock prices are determined, there is such leverage by hedge funds and in derivatives, that you cannot consider stocks at some normal rate of leverage. Between hedge funds and derivatives, it is easy to get 100 to 1 leverage, or at least 25 to 1. That being the case, just consider all markets at 100 to 1, prices being determined at the margins.
So, you combine wild speculation with wild leverage, and big time complacency, and you inevitably come to a gigantic financial crash. Of course, many writers have discussed this pathological situation for years, so an impeding financial crash is not exactly unexpected.
<ul> ~ Time For Extreme Caution</ul>
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