Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke

verfasst von Emerald, 05.01.2007, 17:01

-->Would Less Be More, or is there Really no Upward Limit?
Outlook upon the year 2007



Contrary to the expectations of many people, the year 2006 has again been characterized by skyrocketing stock prices. Due to the still prevailing low interest rates and the high liquidity, investment in dividend-bearing securities has again proved to be very lucrative, whereas quite often no suitable alternatives had been available. High volatility affecting currencies of emerging markets in newly industrialized countries and several bankruptcies of hedge funds could not seriously disturb stock markets. Although it has meanwhile become a rather permanent feature, the Middle East crisis as well as the smouldering Iraq war never seriously impaired the international financial markets.

As it always happens at year-end, there is the question: Which changes will happen regarding the subject of financial investments? The hitherto rather vague outlines of the global geopolitical situation apparently get more sharply defined. Russia and China continue their political and economic ascent, worrying thereby above all the U.S. For the first time since six years, the government of George Bush - after the November elections - met with increasing disapproval of American citizens. The withdrawal of allied auxiliary troops from Iraq is likely to cause far graver problems than did the invasion of this country three years ago. America's failures and weaknesses evidenced by this situation induce Iran and some other States to claim more political influence for themselves, supported by the certainty of being fully backed up by the antagonists of the U.S. These moves are further encouraged by the irremediably messed-up situation in Afghanistan.

In this transition period, all involved parties should be interested, for their reciprocal benefit, to bring about and maintain a certain consolidation during some time. Expressed in other words: A weakened U.S. does not benefit anybody, but will seriously harm the global trading in goods, causing thereby losses to the nations depending mainly on exports. In China, this could eliminate numerous jobs which in turn might set off massive riots. Resorting to an accurately targeted depreciation of the US-Dollar as a remedying measure would entail the side effect of additional losses suffered by the main financiers of the American balance-of-trade and payment deficits.

Based on the scenario of a rather compulsory coexistence under a different set of changing prerequisites, we consequently look forward to an appreciating US-Dollar in the coming year, after the said currency has recently been virtually gossiped downward. The mere prospect of a genuine political reorientation after the next U.S. elections, coupled with the foreseeable end of the war in Iraq and the general reduction of prices for raw materials in the year 2007, suggest that bearish speculators on the Dollar finally have to close positions by profit taking. The above-average profits derived from the bull market in oil and natural resources are unlikely to occur again in 2007, which is certainly in the very interest of the global community.

In contrast to the opinion of many other people, we feel that - under the prerequisites to be expected - there is no longer any likelihood of exorbitant profits in gold (USD 630.50 per oz.) and gold mining stocks (HUI-Index 348.00). At long last, the hitherto ceaselessly skyrocketing prices will be stopped by an impassable ceiling.

May all our readers experience a peaceful, prosperous and happy New Year!



Zug, 15 December 2006

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gesamter Thread:

• Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke - Emerald, 05.01.2007, 16:59
  • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke - Emerald, 05.01.2007, 17:01
    • beggar thy neighbour? - FOX-NEWS, 05.01.2007, 18:37
  • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke? - certina, 05.01.2007, 18:23
  • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke - sensortimecom, 05.01.2007, 19:12
    • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 / Erich - - Elli -, 05.01.2007, 19:54
      • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 / Erich - sensortimecom, 05.01.2007, 22:08
  • Bei 540 $ ist Schluss - wenn überhaupt, wahrscheinlich dreht's bei 570 $ (kT) - Nachfrager, 05.01.2007, 19:31
  • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke / 400? - ---Elli---, 05.01.2007, 19:50
  • Was interessiert mich - crosswind, 05.01.2007, 21:24
  • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke - albert, 05.01.2007, 23:29
    • Re: Hält Gold bei $ 550.00 oder erst bei Elli's $400.00er - Marke - Cujo, 05.01.2007, 23:33