Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- ...das gibt Ärger mit dem Chef!...Bernankes Ben traut sich was! - Aiwass7, 20.01.2007, 09:46
- Re:...und dazu die (Vor)-Ahnungen eines Greisen in Markt-Beobachtung: - Emerald, 20.01.2007, 09:58
Re:...und dazu die (Vor)-Ahnungen eines Greisen in Markt-Beobachtung:
-->>Back to the markets. It seems to me that the markets are projecting some uncertainty. Yet volatility remains very low, which means that investors aren't really worried. Investors are not running up the price of insurance, and, of course I'm talking about put options. The bonds don't really know which way to go. Gold has built a nice base, but neither gold nor silver have busted out to new highs. Man, this sun is hot -- I better go inside,"C'mon, poodles, in we go."
And there's this chart again. Here we see a P&F chart of the widely-followed S&P 500. You don't have to be a bloody genius to understand what this chart is saying. Anybody with a pair of good eyes can see that the S&P is"stretched" -- very extended. This tells us that some kind of a correction is needed. If you take a child's blocks and pile one on top of the other, at some point the rising column is going to be vulnerable. Keep piling up the blocks and the whole structure is going to lean over and fall down. That doesn't have to happen in exactly the same way in the stock market, but there is a structure that we call a"high pole." You're looking at one on the chart. Will this high pole just back off two or three boxes. Or will it fall down? The odds are always in favor of, well, just a correction. We'll see, won't we. But this pole is awfully high. Maybe we should just wait and observe how the darn thing works out. I'm not in a hurry, and you shouldn't be either. Oops, there I go again, telling people what to do and when.
(Richard Russel am 19.1.2007)
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