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Mix-Ansicht- Zum DJIA - jacques, 20.01.2001, 11:58
- Re: Zum DJIA eine second opinion - jacques, 20.01.2001, 12:08
Re: Zum DJIA eine second opinion
Near-Term (Ralph Acampora)
Prices as of close on 1/17/2001
For the past ten months we have been struggling to uncover a quality rally. In 2000, we experienced an abbreviated summer rally, a failed pre-election rally and a questionable post election rally. Of course we are using the popular market averages to measure such rallies. However, if one looks below the surface, we believe a completely different picture emerges. We technicians use a very basic tool to judge the direction of the majority of individual stocks on the NYSE. This is called the Advance/Decline Line-it measures the market's breadth. It will tell you whether most stocks are going up or down during a rally phase.
On Tuesday, the A/D Line rallied above its September peak and simultaneously broke its two-year downtrend! In our opinion, this is an extremely important event and one that must not go unnoticed. To demonstrate what this means, the following three averages would have to rally above their respective September highs to match the strength of the NYSE breadth:
Average September High
Dow Jones Industrial Average 11,300
Standard and Poor's 500 1550
Nasdaq Composite 4250
The conclusion that one might glean from this improved breadth action is that individual investors must concentrate on stocks and not the market's averages. This is very positive activity and we are now calling it a"stealth-bull market" because we feel the A/D Line just entered into its major uptrend phase.
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