Versöhnung von Fundamentals und Wellen? Höchst interessant.

verfasst von siggi, 15.03.2007, 13:53

-->Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

I have been doing a lot of work on economic cycles recently and have been unable to find any of Martin Armstrong's articles on the internet. Both the Martin Armstrong Defense Fund and his Princeton Economic Insitute are no longer accessible.

Luckly, I saved a copy of his"The Business Cycle and the Future" article which was published on the Defense Fund web site. I'm re-publishing the paper because I think it's important enough for investors and traders to have ready access to it. This article was written in September 1999 and identified September 2000 as a major turning point. Both the S&P 500 and the NYSE made their final highs in that month. In addition, Armstrong's work identified November 2002 as a major bottom.

Armstrong identified January 1st, 2005 as the last important turn date - the date which marked the high for the NASDAQ for the year. The next turn date won't come until 2/27/07. Whether or not that means the market will remain weak until then is unclear, but it certainly wouldn't come a surprise. One important thing to remember in looking at all cycles is that the specific date is more important than whether the system identifies it as a high or a low cycle. The same is true for Martin Armstrong's cycle work. Until we come closer to the next cycle point, it won't be clear whether it will represent a top or a bottom in the markets and economy


Kleine Erläuterung dazu aus einem anderen Forum:

Das Princeton Model trifft Vorhersagen aufgrund zyklischer Erwägungen. Man achte auf das Top 1998 und das Low 2002. Das erste praktisch taggenau, das zweite mit etwa zwei Monaten Verzögerung. Und das aktuelle Top soll laut diesem Modell ein Mega-Top sein. Genaue Daten unten aufgelistet. 2007,15 bedeutet 27.2.2007

Dazu bitte die Grafiken im Link anschauen.

lg

siggi





<ul> ~ http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html</ul>

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gesamter Thread:

• Versöhnung von Fundamentals und Wellen? Höchst interessant. - siggi, 15.03.2007, 13:53
  • Re: Versöhnung von Fundamentals und Wellen? Höchst interessant. - EM-financial, 15.03.2007, 18:33
    • Re: Ist vielleicht Erbsenzählerei, aber... - MI, 15.03.2007, 20:01
      • dann zählen wir noch mehr Erbsen ;-) - EM-financial, 15.03.2007, 23:09
        • Re: Erbsen... Man lernt doch nie aus ;-) (o.Text) - MI, 15.03.2007, 23:12
          • Re: 3.Möglichkeit: Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratjew ;-) wieso Englisch-wiki? - Märchenonkel, 16.03.2007, 09:32
    • Martin A. Armstrong, die ganze Geschichte. Haarsträubend... - siggi, 15.03.2007, 22:45