Board-Ansicht
Mix-Ansicht- Turbodyne (owT) - Hideyoshi, 10.06.2000, 15:41
- Re: Turbodyne (owT) - Hideyoshi, 10.06.2000, 15:44
- Rückfrage zu Turbodyne - JüKü, 10.06.2000, 19:54
- ANALYSE TURBODYNE - Buy-and-Hold bis zum bitteren Ende - JüKü, 10.06.2000, 22:15
- Re: ANALYSE TURBODYNE - Buy-and-Hold bis zum bitteren Ende - Hideyoshi, 11.06.2000, 01:58
- Re: Turbodyne (owT) - Hideyoshi, 10.06.2000, 15:44
ANALYSE TURBODYNE - Buy-and-Hold bis zum bitteren Ende
Habe mir Turbodyne mal ein wenig angesehen (auch"Fundamentals!"). Der letzte Quartalsbericht (1/2000) und auch der Jahresbericht 1999 sehen m. E. katastrophal aus. Verluste ein Vielfaches des Umsatzes - aber das kennt man ja. Nur, viele haben sich zwar an solche Berichte"gewöhnt", aber eine Firma, die auf Dauer Verluste macht, kann nicht überleben!
Bezeichnend sind folgende Worte aus dem Quartalsbericht (zuerst fand ich nur einen"interessanten" Absatz im Bericht, aber dann stellte ich fest, das fast der gesamte Bericht einer Kapitulation gleicht (!), und so musste ich viel hier über nehmen) - lesen Sie wirklich ALLES:
<font color="#0000FF">THE MARKET POTENTIAL AND ACCEPTANCE OF OUR PRODUCTS IS UNCERTAIN
Our future financial performance will largely depend on the acceptance
of products incorporating the Turbodyne Technology by OEMs and consumers. There
can be no assurance that such acceptance will occur.
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DOUBT ABOUT OUR ABILITY TO CONTINUE AS A GOING CONCERN
We have suffered net losses in each of the last four years resulting in
an accumulated deficit of $92,377,000 at March 31, 2000, have used cash in our
operating activities in each of the last four years, have disposed of our most
significant subsidiary through bankruptcy, are subject to various lawsuits and,
based on our projected cash flows for the ensuing year, will be required to seek
additional equity or debt financing in order to continue our present operations,
irrespective of the amounts to be paid, if any, in connection with the
aforementioned lawsuits. These matters raise substantial doubt about our ability
to continue as a going concern. The consolidated financial statements do not
include any adjustments that might result from the outcome of these
uncertainties.
THE COMPANY IS UNDER INVESTIGATION BY THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (THE"SEC")
The SEC inquiry is ongoing. The SEC has indicated that its inquiry
should not be construed as an indication by the SEC or its staff that any
violations of law have occurred, nor as an adverse reflection on the merits of
the Company's securities. The Company has cooperated with the SEC and intends to
continue to cooperate with any additional requests from the SEC. Failure to
resolve the SEC inquiry satisfactorily could have a material adverse effect on
the Company.
WE HAVE NO HISTORY OF REVENUES UNDER OUR RECENT AGREEMENTS WITH HONEYWELL
None of the Turbodyne Products are commercially produced except for the
Turbopac(TM) 1500 product and limited commercial production of the Turbopac(TM)
2500 product. The other models of the Turbopac(TM) product and all models of the
Dynacharger(TM) product remain in various stages of development. We cannot
assure you that the other Turbopac(TM) models or the Dynacharger(TM) products
will be developed timely or that they will be commercially accepted. The failure
of the Turbopac(TM) and Dynacharger(TM) products to achieve commercial success
would have a material adverse effect on the business, operating results and
financial condition of the Company.
WE HAVE A HISTORY OF LOSSES AND WE ANTICIPATE FUTURE LOSSES
To date, we have not been profitable. We reported net losses of
$35,988,896, $30,033,000 and $13,185,000 for the fiscal years ended December 31,
1999, 1998 and 1997, respectively. At March 31, 2000, we had an accumulated
deficit of $92,377,000. We cannot assure you that we will report net income in
any future year or period.
WE HAVE ONLY LIMITED WORKING CAPITAL
We believe that our current sources of working capital are sufficient to
satisfy our anticipated working capital requirements only to July 31, 2000. We
intend to seek to raise additional funds through public or private offerings of
equity or debt or joint development arrangements. No assurance can be given that
additional funds can be raised or, if they can be raised, that the terms on
which they can be raised will be satisfactory. Any such financing may involve
significant dilution to our current stockholders.
INTENSE COMPETITION
The business environment in which we operate is highly competitive.
Certain of our competitors have, and potential competitors may have, greater
financial, marketing, technological and other resources. We believe that no
products technologically similar to the Turbopac(TM) and Dynacharger(TM)
products have been sold. However, future competitors may develop related
technologies that improve the performance of internal combustion engines or
reduce emissions that are not encompassed by our patents. In addition, other
companies may be issued patents which may inhibit our ability to develop certain
products encompassed by those patents. There also may be improvements to
existing technologies.
WE DEPEND ON KEY PERSONNEL
The skills and efforts of our management team and engineering staff,
including our Chairman of the Board, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Peter Hofbauer, and Chief
Executive Officer, Gerhard Delf, are critical to our success.
OUR STOCK PRICE IS EXTREMELY VOLATILE
The price of our Common Stock on the Easdaq Market has been and may
continue to be subject to wide fluctuations in response to a number of events
and factors, such as quarterly variations in results of operations,
announcements of new technological innovations or purchase orders for our
products, changes in financial estimates and recommendations by securities
analysts, the operating and stock price performance of other companies that
investors may deem comparable to us, and news relating to trends in our markets.
In addition, the stock market in general, and the market for high technology
stocks in particular, have experienced extreme volatility that often has been
unrelated to the operating performance of these companies. These broad market
and industry fluctuations may adversely affect the price of our Common Stock,
regardless of our operating performance.
EFFECT OF OUTSTANDING OPTIONS, WARRANTS AND CONVERTIBLE STOCK
As of May 12, 2000, approximately 57,700,746 shares of Common Stock
would be outstanding assuming the exercise of all outstanding options and
warrants. Although some of these options and warrants are exercisable at prices
which may exceed the current prevailing market prices of our Common Stock, their
existence could potentially limit the scope of increases in the market value of
the Common Stock which might otherwise be realized.
ABSENCE OF DIVIDENDS
We have never paid cash dividends on the Common Stock and no cash
dividends are expected to be paid on the Common Stock in the foreseeable future.
OUR COMMON STOCK WAS DELISTED FROM THE NASDAQ SMALLCAP MARKET
Our Common Stock was delisted from The Nasdaq Small Cap Market on April
1, 1999. No assurance can be given that our Common Stock will be listed on any
United States securities exchange in the future.
WE MAY BECOME SUBJECT TO RULES RELATING TO LOW-PRICED OR PENNY STOCK </font>
Eigentlich könnte ich mit eine Elliott-Analyse angesichts dieses Berichts sparen, aber dennoch. Im Juli 1998 bei 15 Euro, dann erster Absturz auf 8, Ende August 1998 auf 2,50 (!), Erholung auf 5,30 (März 1999), Absturz auf 1,20 (April 1999), Erholung auf 3,10 (Juli 1999), Ende Oktober 1999 das bisherige Tief bei 1,10. Dann Erholung bis 4,80 (Jan. u. Feb. 2000), zurzeit 2,80 Euro.
Gut (und erstaunlich), dass es (noch) nicht NULL sind!
Hier der Chart:
Ich kann natürlich nicht ausschließen, dass Turbodyne sich noch eine zeitlang hält oder sogar ein wenig steigt, aber ich halte es für recht unwahrscheinlich. Hinzu kommt, dass der Dollar m. E. vor einer großen Korrektur (abwärts) steht, was dem Kurs in Euro natürlich nicht guttut.
Zuletzt noch ein paar Worte zu den"Fundamentals", die ich mir angeschaut habe: Ich weiß nicht, ob die Quartalsberichte vorher auch schon so negativ waren, ich habe mir beispielhaft den vom 1. Quartal 1999 mal angesehen. Dort heißt es noch:
<font color="#0000FF">ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISKS
Not applicable. </font>!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Aber der Aktienkurs war, wie gesagt, im April 1999 schon bei 1,20 Euro!
Fundamentals und Aktienkurse haben sehr wohl etwas miteinander zu tun, aber die Fundamentals FOLGEN dem Kurs, nicht umgekehrt! Wieder ein schönes Beispiel dafür!
Have a nice weekend!
Jürgen Küßner, 10. Juni 2000
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