"This time is not different"....meint wenigstens Gartm,

verfasst von SilVisconti, 13.08.2007, 19:09

-->der exzellente, mit allen Wassern gewaschene Kenner der Finanzmärkte und Herausgeber des Millionärsletters"TGL". Hier ein Ausschnitt aus seinem täglich erscheinenden Börsenbrief:

(…)
The monetary authorities have been hard at work pushing
liquidity into the global banking system. In the course of
the past several days we've seen every central bank of
consequence make itself evident, adding liquidity where
and when it/they could do so. We applaud those
measures, for that is
precisely what a central
bank should do: make
itself evident to one and
all, overtly pushing
liquidity into the system
to avoid systemic risk,
and assuring the markets
that the authorities have
their hands upon the
rudders and are doing
what they can to steer
the proper course
amongst increasing
dangers [Ed. Note: At the
moment, we would like to address the panicked cries from
Jim Cramer on CNBC last week for the Fed to"Open the
discount window!" The discount window is always open; it
is never closed. Banks can go"into the window"
whenever they wish, paying a penalty rate when they do
so and knowing that they shall bring increased Fed
scrutiny upon them when they do so. However, they know
that"The Window" is always open. We can recall back in
the 70's when the bank we worked for then often"went
into the Window" when the discount rate was not a
penalty... indeed, when the rate on funds available at the
Window was often at a discount to that available in the
free fed funds market. Management would often say,"If
the Fed wants to sell us money cheaply, we are
abrogating our responsibility to our shareholders not to
buy it... scrutiny to the contrary." Those were heady and
fun days]. It is what the authorities do as they attempt to
drain the excess reserves they have pushed upon the
market at a later date that shall have our interest. If the
funds pushed into the market are allowed to remain as
permanent injections, then this is highly inflationary,
currency bearish and gold bullish. If it is removed it is not.
Our interest is obviously piqued.... and very so!
(…)
SHARE PRICES ARE AGAIN WEAK,
but a bounce is due and is taking place this morning, with
the markets in Asia and in Europe responding to the fact
that the monetary authorities in Europe, N. America and
Asia have moved to inject rather sizeable sums of money
into the banking systems to fight the feared contagion of
the problems of the US housing/mortgage market. The
central bankers are acting as central bankers should act
during times of duress: they are making it very obvious
that they are on guard, that they are"there" to supply
reserves as needed, and that they shall be there until such
time as the fears abate, liquidity returns and confusion
abates. Others may argue with the"how" and"why" of
what the monetary authorities have done collectively and
singularly, but we shall simply say that we applaud their
efforts. They have done what they are supposed to do.
Now, we shall see how they act to remove the excess
liquidity that may be sloshing about in the global capital
markets this morning over the course of the next several
weeks as cooler heads do indeed prevail and as the
contagion has been put to quits... at least for the moment.

We shall also note that simply because the panic has been
caught off does not mean that the problems in real estate
and the mortgage lending arena have ended, for of course
they have not. Before this process runs its final course we
look to see a large number of small and large size go
under. That is the nature of such things. Remember, in
the aftermath of the Enron Scandal, before it was finished
there were people put into jail, there were careers openly
ruined (those that should be, and several that never
should have been brought to court, nor prosecuted... with
one of our friends having proven himself fully innocent of
charges brought against him at Duke Energy as the
government's charges of collusive trading were dismissed
in full); there were entire energy trading desks shuttered
and operations closed. In the aftermath of the savings &
loan scandals, there were dozens upon dozens of S&L's
shuttered; there were scores of people sent packing to jail;
there were problems persisting for years thereafter. As we
like to say, in the world of finance, the characters may
change from time to time, but the plot lines run always the
same. So too shall the current mortgage/real estate
"crisis." Contrary to the comments one might hear, this
time is not different. Times never are.
(…)

Gruß, Sil
<ul> ~ http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/081307.pdf</ul>

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gesamter Thread:

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          • Re: Was'n nu??? / ja - - Elli -, 13.08.2007, 22:02
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  • Re: Mutual assured survival - und es geht doch weiter! - imperator, 13.08.2007, 12:11
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          • Lehre daraus? - Re: Danke dafuer, das ist interessant! (o.Text) - weissgarnix, 13.08.2007, 13:51
            • Re: Lehre daraus? - Re: Danke dafuer, das ist interessant! (o.Text) - albert, 13.08.2007, 15:29
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    • Genau: control has been lost! - Elmarion, 13.08.2007, 13:01
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  • Re: Mutual assured survival - und es geht doch weiter! - albert, 13.08.2007, 15:43
  • Re: Mutual assured survival - und es geht doch weiter! - LOMITAS, 13.08.2007, 16:01
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    • Re: Mutual assured survival - und es geht doch weiter! - Eddie09, 13.08.2007, 16:13
      • Re: Mutual assured survival - und es geht doch weiter! - LOMITAS, 13.08.2007, 16:20
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          • Re: Diabolischer Massenschnauzbart - Tassie Devil, 13.08.2007, 17:23
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    • Re: Mutual assured survival - und es geht doch weiter! - apoll, 13.08.2007, 22:24
  • "This time is not different"....meint wenigstens Gartm, - SilVisconti, 13.08.2007, 19:09