Re: $4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks - Quatsch

verfasst von Pancho, 05.09.2007, 11:45

-->>hallo,
>selbiges ging mir gestern per email-verteiler zu.
>die originäre quelle im ticker forum konnte ich nicht finden.
>google-quellen:
>http://www.google.de/search?q=%244.5+billion+options+bet+on+catastrophe+within+four+weeks+ticker+forum&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:de:official&client=firefox-a
>deutsche übersetzung:
>http://www.lutzschaefer.com/index.php?id_kategorie=8&id_thema=97
>
>$4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks
>Anybody have a clue as to what these 'investors' are expecting?
>The two sales are being referred to by market traders as"bin Laden
>trades" because only an event on the scale of 9-11 could make these
>short-sell options valuable.
>There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open
>interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion.
>Not a single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700
>points away from current value. No one would buy that deep"in the
>money" calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone
>betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity
>that I haven't seen before.
>The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if
>the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does
>not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over
>$1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!
>Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the
>options expire on Sept. 21.
>THEORIES:
>The following theories are being discussed widely within the stock and
>options markets today regarding the enormous and very unusual activity
>reported above and two stories below. Those theories are:
>1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept. 21 to
>tank the markets, OR;
>2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-
>prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US
>currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial
>revolution. Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-
>dead date of these contracts is September 21. Whatever is going to
>happen MUST take place between now and then or the folks involved in
>these contracts will lose over $1 billion for having engaged in this
>activity.

Diese Leute verlieren nicht über 1 Mia.$, sondern genau 325'000$ (0.05$*65'000*100=325'000$). Letzter Kurs dieser Option (laut Yahoo): 5 cents.

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gesamter Thread:

• $4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks - rahim, 05.09.2007, 11:24
  • Zum 4711. Mal: Zu jedem Put-Kontrakt gibt es eine Gegenpartei. (o.Text) - Ecki1, 05.09.2007, 11:36
    • ...und was passiert bei deren Insolvenz...? (o.Text) - Tofir, 05.09.2007, 11:40
      • ... dann kommt Helikopter-Ben... und alles wird gut. (o.Text) - FOX-NEWS, 05.09.2007, 11:45
      • Re: in der Regel unwahrscheinlich, man verkauft Warrants ans Retail-Publikum. (o.Text) - Ecki1, 05.09.2007, 12:14
  • Re: $4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks - Quatsch - Pancho, 05.09.2007, 11:45
  • Re: $4.5 billion options / Unsinn.... - - Elli -, 05.09.2007, 12:21
  • Re: $4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks - LOMITAS, 05.09.2007, 12:30
  • hätt ich es mir ja denken können - das auge des großen forums ist überall... - rahim, 05.09.2007, 14:37