Interessante Meinung von Jim Bianco

verfasst von JüKü, 30.01.2001, 10:09

<< Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research in Barrington, Ill., says the early January decision was made in part to forestall an investor panic in the stock market, especially in Nasdaq stocks.

But Bianco, in a report written for the Leuthold Group in Minneapolis, argues that investors are not likely to abandon the stock market en masse until most of their unrealized profits disappear. Only then will they jump ship, causing the reverse wealth effect to harm the economy.

To try to measure where individual investors stand with their portfolios, Bianco has compiled an index of the stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average and the Russell 2000, all weighted equally.

This combination, which he has tracked since 1990, best reflects the holdings in equity mutual funds, he said. Then he estimates the average cost of investors' domestic mutual fund purchases by analyzing equity fund inflows.

"Since 1990, the public has put about $1.4 trillion into the stock market, and they have about $1.88 trillion of market value," Bianco said. The difference between those numbers -- approximately $470 billion as of the end of November -- is their unrealized gain.

Investors view their unrealized profits as gamblers do their casino winnings: It is the house's money at stake.

"You don't treat it with the care and love that you do with your hard- earned paycheck," Bianco said.

But the minute that those winnings disappear, all bets are off.

Bianco saw such a shift in investor psychology some years ago, in bond funds. Investors in those funds reached the break-even point in April 1994 and they promptly began exiting the arena. For the next year, bond funds saw nothing but outflows, on a monthly basis.

Although investors' unrealized profits have fallen by $285 billion, or 38 percent, since they peaked in December 1999 -- Bianco said that because investors still had $470 billion in house money to play with, they would remain bullish on stocks.

"My argument is the reverse wealth effect will hit with a vengeance when we get to the break-even point in stock market gains," he said."Only then will people become disillusioned with the stock market and not jump back in." >>

Quelle: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2001/01/28/BU43945.DTL

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• Interessante Meinung von Jim Bianco - JüKü, 30.01.2001, 10:09
  • Re: Ein Spitzenstück! Genau so ist es in Amerika - vielen Dank für den Hinweis! (owT) - dottore, 30.01.2001, 10:35
    • Re: dottore, - almoehi, 30.01.2001, 10:55
      • Re: dottore, habe es eben gelesen, werden eine loesung finden! - almoehi, 30.01.2001, 11:01
  • Re: Und die Autorin, Gretchen Morgenson (früher Barron's, Forbes) ist Klasse! (owT) - Lullaby, 30.01.2001, 10:38