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Mix-Ansicht- interessante Einschätzung zu Subprimekrise und Rezession - alberich, 30.09.2007, 17:32
interessante Einschätzung zu Subprimekrise und Rezession
-->auch wenn schon etwas älter (12/2006).
Zusammenfassung:
Five percent of the U.S. consumer market is made up of folks that are new homebuyers. This is the 5 percent of the U.S. consumer market that Greenspan is worried about, that have such little equity in their homes that if home prices decline in any way, they owe more than they own. That's a bad situation, particularly as most of these guys are in adjustable-rate mortgage products, and they are going to be squeezed as rates continue to rise.
Then we add the other 5 percent of households, including the folks that are playing credit card roulette, who are going to be squeezed by this minimum payment guideline, who have never had access to credit before, who have gotten a lot richer over the past decade, and are about to get a lot poorer because of liquidity strain.
So when you look at this 10 percent of the market which we qualify as subprime, what does it mean to the total economy at large? Well, 40 percent of discretionary spending is done by the top 20 percent of the consumers. We don't think the subprime market correlates to the top 20 percent of the consumers.
The way I refer to this market is that these are probably the Wal-Mart customers. It's one level above the dollar stores, and probably one level below a Target store. And you've already seen spending at Wal-Mart contract somewhat. Many of these numbers can be confirmed by just looking at general trends in retail sales. You see no blip whatsoever at Nordstrom's and Neiman Marcus, all of the higher-end retailers, that have really been carrying a lot of the consumer spending. So we think consumer spending in a finite portion of the market will slow, and credit deterioration will increase dramatically in a finite segment of bank portfolios.
Again, we think 10 percent of the U.S. consumers will definitely go into a segmented recession, but the rest of corporate and consumer America looks pretty good.
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